Like London bloody buses. I’ve not managed a trip to The Valley for a while now (last one I saw live was Wembley) and now events/circumstances dictate/allow me to get in two in three weeks, starting with Sheff Wed on Saturday. Can’t wait. I see the club has even decided to mark the event by installing a new screen. As long as we still get to shout ‘Fiiiiish’ at it.
No game at this stage of the season is ‘must win’, and nobody’s imagining that Sheff Wed are going to be anything other than a tough nut to crack, despite their problems (arguably to some extent because of them, given the team spirit they have engendered). But we really could use the three points, to put us back into ‘positive territory’ for the season and to encourage us to be looking up not down. And after two on the road and the international break we really want the warm glow of a win, plus hopefully a good performance, back home.
I don’t think there’s any doubt that Jones the Boss does face some selection issues for Saturday. It would not be surprising were he to name an unchanged starting XI, but he must be thinking about options – which is positive in the sense that he has them.
The loss of Edwards is a big blow, which is no reflection on the capabilities of Bell and Gillesphey. He slotted in from the start and is well versed in working on the left side with Campbell going forward. Bell as we’ve seen can play the wing-back role, but not as yet with the same drive going forward. The choice of Ramsay in the role at Preston may have been dictated by the desire to nullify Small (which very nearly worked) but it has to be in Jones’ mind to keep him there, this time more for attacking potential.
Assuming we stick with a back three/five, that all bar Edwards are fit and available, and given that Jones the Player is barring injury a shoo-in, as is Bree as right-side wing-back, the choices are either Ramsay or Burke to his right and Bell or Gillesphey to his left, both influenced by the choice to fill Edwards’ slot. I don’t know enough about Sheff Wed’s attacking strengths to say if they might influence the choice; but given that we are at home and looking at their defensive record – by a distance the worst in the league so far – the decision will surely be as much about attacking as defensive capabilities.
The other issue – which does potentially affect even the formation – is up front. We’re nine games into the season and have registered one goal to date from a recognised forward, one that hasn’t yet made a start. At the same time our player of the month for August, who has scored, isn’t getting either a start or a kick at the moment. It is blindingly obvious that Campbell, Kelman and Leaburn are all very much in need of a goal, of any description. Kelman’s play outside the box is much improved from the start of the campaign, Campbell always looks a threat as a provider or by cutting inside. But nobody as yet has demonstrated the poaching instincts of Godden or the bulldozing impact of Aneke.
It is for me telling that in recent games we have seen some really inviting balls into the box just evade a forward or find nobody. It’s not that the forwards are guilty of glaring misses, rather that we don’t create many clear-cut chances for them in open play while the half-chances and possible openings have not been converted. Barring Olaofe’s one, the goals have instead come from the attack-minded central midfielder, the No.10 if you like (two for Carey and one for Knibbs), a wing-back (a brace for Bree and one for Apter playing in that position), and a central defender (Gillesphey). It has to be a cause for concern, irrespective of chances created and work outside the box.
So what makes sense in terms of options? I’d say we may have options but no obvious solutions. Kelman has been handed a thankless task, usually up against two fresh central defenders, before the ‘impact players’ come on to face a tiring defence. In that context Campbell offers little direct support, doing his good work out wide – but not yet scoring goals. Leaburn has struggled so far this season, with some exceptional touches but not the kind of impact from the bench that we would hope for. Again, Jones may conclude that the system is working, that Kelman and Campbell tire the opposition and create the conditions for others to benefit from later in the game. But on Saturday we are up against what on paper is the worst defense in the league.
Jones could opt simply to start with Leaburn and look to either Olaofe or Kelman to replace him in the second half, or indeed Olaofe. If he starts, as and when Campbell tires we now have Hernandez as well as Olaofe to replace him, but that leaves out Apter. We could go with a front three, of Campbell, Kelman (or another) and Apter, but then you would have to sacrifice Carey/Knibbs and their goals contribution. The same applies if we went for 4-4-2.
The conclusion? Without wishing to appear to be sitting on the fence, I trust that Jones and his team have taken a good look at Sheff Wed’s defensive frailties and worked out how we might best exploit them. That could mean selection changes. His preference may well be to focus on just us and what we do best, but the status quo has not yet delivered goals from the forwards, so at the least there is a case to be made for changes. What we really want from Saturday, in addition to the points, is goals from the forwards, whoever they are.
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