Like others I’m sure, I’ve been reluctant to think about next
season, until it was certain we would be staying up. Until we beat Hull there
was that lingering thought. Would Swansea away on the last day be like Notts
Forest away in May 1989 - when we were safe in the top flight for a fourth
season under Lennie Lawrence with a game to spare, lost 0-4 and couldn’t care
less – or like Blackpool away in 1972 – when we were trounced 0-5 and saw
Fulham jump above us out of the final relegation spot? Thankfully it proved to
be the former.
Before drilling down into what we need to do for next season, who
might stay and who might go, there has to be an overall assessment of how we
did this campaign. We stayed up because we took 23 points from our first 15
games. Over a full season that would have given us 71 points and a shout for
the final play-off place. In the subsequent 30 games we have secured 30 points
– and it doesn’t require a calculator to work out where that would have left
us. It has been relegation form for more than half of the season. We kept our
heads above water thanks to the seven-points week (three games), and we did
strengthen sensibly in January (with four loan signings in key areas), but on
prevailing form if the season had gone on another 10 games we would have been
likely to get relegated, the excellent win against Hull notwithstanding.
I can’t agree with Jones the Boss when he says that we should have
had significantly more points than we did in the run-in. Sure, in the
seven-game winless run we didn’t get the breaks, results were always tight. But
in plenty of others before them we had. Not just winning at Middlesbrough
(great performance but if that game was played 10 times we probably would have
lost six and drawn three), we were getting mullered by Sheff Utd at The Valley
before they shot themselves in the foot and had two sent off before half-time,
and who knows how the game at Leicester would have gone if they had not been
reduced to 10 (and failed to convert a second-half penalty). These things do
usually even out. Since Christmas Portsmouth have done the double over us and
we failed to win at Blackburn (when they were in the mire), Oxford (getting a
vital point via a truly gifted penalty), West Brom, and Sheff Wed. We ended up where
we deserved to be.
It has been a strange season for the division (perhaps it always
is). While we were flirting with the top six and thinking Jones truly had a
Midas touch, Southampton, Sheff Utd, Norwich – teams expected to be competing
at the top – were floundering around the bottom. They turned things around,
usually by replacing their managers, and fair play to them. Fair play also to
Portsmouth (pleased for them for their behaviour over Headphones Norm), West
Brom and Blackburn, they got their act together when it mattered, just as we
were faltering. Give Oxford credit too, they seemed buried but ended up getting
close to survival. We stayed up because Sheff Wed were doomed from the start,
Oxford couldn’t pull off a great escape, and Leicester proved to be the fall
guys we needed, simply imploding.
So given the start we had, what went wrong? Certainly injuries
took their toll. Losing Edwards was a massive blow (especially as nobody
thought when he hobbled off that would be the last we’d see of him for the
season). Not having Godden available until the end also cost us, Knibbs’ season
was prematurely effectively ended by a dreadful tackle, while periodic injuries
to Ramsay, Burke and Bell disrupted the defence. Perhaps we simply took
advantage of other teams’ slow start, then playing with the intensity required
took its toll (we were defending like dogs and scoring the occasional goal) and
proved unsustainable, and perhaps there was a mental aspect, that when we fell
away from the top group we had nothing left to play for but to avoid relegation
– although that would be unfair on the players, who never lacked effort and
determination. Perhaps the answer – in addition to an element of all of these
things – was that we lost confidence during winless spells and didn’t have the
quality to be able to counterbalance that.
Our poor results in the run-in must give Jones and the owners food
for thought, as must being aware that the switch away from playing the target
man up top resulted in improved displays and suddenly goals from open play
(after the series of goals only from long throws or other set pieces). I’d
suggest there are other areas to ponder too.
Of the new signings last summer, overall to date you have to say
the marque ones have disappointed. Kelman has shown flashes of what we might
expect from him, his goal against Hull gave the impression he has learnt from
Godden, not for the strike but the aggression to win the ball. That hasn’t always
been evident and at the start of the season we would have expected more
appearances and more goals from him. Hopefully that will be the case next
season. Olaofe and Apter have failed to make a mark so far (Apter not least
because we don’t play with wingers and anyone who thought he could be a
wing-back needs their bumps felt) and went out on loan, Knibbs missed much of
the season through no fault of his own. Carey was the exception, for a while
providing our main goal threat and ending up as leading goalscorer from
midfield, although it has now been a while since he found the net.
The signings having the greatest impact were the experienced ones,
players already known to Jones. Kaminski had a decent season (as did Mannion,
who bided his time and was ready when the chance came, although of course there
were mistakes from both). Burke and Bell either started or were in the squad
when available, only problem being their injury records (which we knew about
before they arrived).
Youngsters overall failed to make an impression as far as the
first team was concerned. The obvious exception was Fullah, Gough also featured,
but others who had been on the fringes last season either went out on loan or
stayed with the U21s/U18s. Anderson went from a first-team starter to on loan
at Blackpool in a short space of time. He sits at the front of a large group – including
(but not confined to) Asiimwe, Laqeretabua, Mitchell(Z), Enslin, Rylah, Casey,
Dixon – on which decisions will need to be made regarding whether they can be
expected to be involved in the first-team squad next season, while Kanu and
Mbick picked up plaudits and awards (an in the case of the latter transfer
interest) out on loan but have yet to be tested at Championship level.
Finally, we have a couple of enigmas up front: Leaburn and
Campbell. Leaburn has had a disappointing season, not managing to get a run in
the side and delivering mixed performances when called on. The jury for me is
still out over whether he is, like his father, just waiting to flower into a
fully-fledged central striker or whether he is more Marcus Rashford than Alan
Shearer. He still has plenty of time on his hands (he, like JC, is 22) but
either Jones views him as a regular starter for next season or, if he is pushed
down the pecking order by new signings, a candidate to go on loan to get
regular football.
TC gets a lot of underserved flak. He’s often called on to play
three, even four, positions in a game, including being pressed into service as
a wing-back. For me he remains a very effective winger, one capable of
improvement in that role. When selected to play alongside another forward he
does all his good work out wide, which is fine if you have a consistent
goalscorer to feed off him (and/or midfielders like Berry to get into the box
to assist). He is not going to contribute many goals as a second striker, he is
not a poacher inside the box and needs the ball to feet outside it.
So overall we are a mess if you view things from a perspective of
what is on the table for next season, one which will most probably see us
compete in a tougher league (Wolves, Burnley, West Ham/Spurs, Cardiff). There
is a great deal of work to be done – including decisions on a large number of
players as well as on who we might look to sign. We ended this one with four
loan players (Clarke, Chambers, Coady, Fevrier) in the starting XI for Swansea,
five if you include Dykes (whose contract only lasts until the end of the
season). We can have no idea if we will see any of them again in a Charlton
shirt. We had out on loan no less than nine of the first-team squad -
Mitchell(A), Asiimwe, Anderson, Taylor, Apter, Olaofe, Kanu, Mbick (albeit
injured), Ahadme (apparently also injured) – and several youngsters.
As things stand, what do we know?
It’s reasonable to expect that next season Kaminski and Mannion
will continue to contest the goalkeeping spot, unless someone else is signed as
a number one to leapfrog them – in which case one of them would probably leave.
In defence, unless someone comes in with a good offer for Jones or
Ramsay, and allowing for us to possibly let some go, and potentially some with
contracts expiring, we will have on the books Jones, Ramsay, Burke, Bell,
Sichenje, Gillesphey, Mitchell(A), Mitchell(Z), Gough, Asiimwe, and we all very
much hope Edwards. If we started next season with Ramsay and Edwards as wing-backs,
Sichenje/Burke, Jones and Bell/Gillesphey as three central defenders, we’d
probably feel confident in that set-up even without new faces, but light again for
the wing-backs. Everyone’s probably assuming Plymouth will buy their player of
the season Mitchell(A), but let’s not forget he’s only 24. Of course if we switched
to four at the back we’d be even better covered. If we stay with wing-backs I’d
like to see us try to keep Fevrier, who I think was a breath of fresh air.
In midfield as things stand we have Docherty (still another year
on the contract), Coventry (also another year left I believe), Rankin-Costello,
Anderson, Carey, Knibbs, Fullah, and Apter. Berry’s contract expires and the
assumption is he will head off with our gratitude and best wishes; Taylor I
think is out of contract in the summer and will presumably be let go. If we
stick to the current formation, with Carey and Knibbs, possibly Fullah, to
contest the more forward position, unless Anderson comes back fired up you have
to assume we will need to strengthen with greater pace and power if we have
ambitions to do more than avoid relegation.
Up front it’s a wing(er) and a prayer. Kelman, Leaburn, Campbell, possibly
Godden (he did enough for me to offer him another year but who knows), Ahadme
(he still I believe has another year to run on his contract and let’s face it
nobody’s going to shell out money for him), plus the returning Kanu and Mbick.
Opinion in my group of Addicks is divided over whether we should try to retain
Dykes, who may well attract interest from elsewhere especially if he features
in the World Cup. I’m in the camp that hopes we do keep him – unless of course
we bring in somebody better. I’m confident Kelman will have a better season,
but what we can expect from Leaburn, Campbell and Kanu, possibly Mbick, is
really for Jones and his team to decide (of course if we switch to playing wingers
we would have TC and Apter).
All ifs and buts at this stage. I don’t know when the club will
announce the retained list and give insight into who else stays or goes, and what
are the priorities for new signings. I guess ahead of that it’s time for
putting the feet up and taking a break, with mild interest in whether we can
look forward to playing West Ham or Spurs next season (I still hope it’s Palace
as long as its mathematically possible, which it still is) and the fun of the
World Cup to come. August seems a long way off at present, but no doubt the
time will pass quickly. I just want Jones and next season’s team to have the
same sort of start to next season as we did this.