Nobody’s going to disagree with Nathan Jones’ post-match comments, including “it was as poor as we’ve been”. He, his staff, and the players have a week on the training ground to get things sorted, but is there anything useful that the rest of us can contribute, while acknowledging that the decisions and outcomes will be down to those who know vastly more about football than we do? No harm in trying.
First, the formation. Just why have we switched to a back five as the first choice option? For me there are only two reasons to play a back three/five with wing-backs. One, that you have real wing-backs available, players capable of getting up and down quickly and be comfortable both attacking and defending. Two, that you are up against it and want to park the bus. Sometimes that’s better done with a 4-4-2 but that’s another matter. I’d suggest that the former does not apply in our current situation and there was no good reason to go for the latter at Burnley or Watford.
Last season we struggled to secure a pair of proper wing-backs to play the formation. Experiments with Campbell and Apter were a (predictable) failure, Bree was able to play the part but he was recalled, Edwards worked well with TC in front of him going wide, but he got crocked. We ended up bringing in Clarke and Chambers in the January window, adding Fevrier (a true wing-back who I liked) for good measure. At the end of the season we allowed all three to return to their clubs, signed McNamara, a genuine full-back, all of which pointed to us being happy to switch to a back four.
It should have no effect, but I can’t help wondering if the sudden return from injury of defenders – Ramsay, Koumetio and Edwards – has influenced thinking. It has resulted in us, even without Burke and the unfortunate Sichenje, able to choose four or five from McNamara, Ramsay, Jones, Koumetio, Bindon, Bell, Edwards and Mesik. A back four and you have to choose between McNamara and Ramsay (or Mesik too), Koumetio and Bindon, and one from Bell, Edwards and Mesik, given that Jones is a nailed-on starter. I don’t see anything wrong with that, having good cover for each position.
Last season we played 3-5-2 (or 5-3-2 if you prefer). This time around we’ve gone to 5-2-3. And I don’t understand this either. Coventry and Skipp are coming in for a good deal of criticism, but the fact is that with 5-2-3 they are getting outnumbered when teams break forward in numbers and in possession they are quickly pressurised. Cardiff, Stoke and now Watford did that, steamrollering the defensive midfield and exploiting a poorly organised back line, in particular the spaces between the wing-backs and central defenders. That shouldn’t happen but is, with a confused look about us.
The fact is (IMO of course) that if you play with wing-backs, even though you don’t have the players for the formation, the last thing you want is a front three when two of the three expect to do their best work out wide. Against Watford Mesik was doing the wing-back role, getting forward to good effect, but that squeezed the space that Campbell would normally expect to move into. As a result not once did we see TC out wide with the ball at his feet looking to take on the defence, which has been our most potent attacking threat this season. Just the once, when moved to right-side wing-back, was he able to take on and beat for pace his opposite number.
As for the defensive midfield two, there has been disruption. Chalobah was excellent before his injury. That left Coventry, Ouma, Mwamba and then Skipp was added as Docherty (and Coady) were rejected. Ouma has looked accident-prone and there is speculation that we are looking to terminate his loan early. Mwamba is clearly a prospect, Skipp is no mean player. But the two in the formation in front of defence are not able to provide any coherent link to a front three. The play out from the back is too slow to utilise the wing-backs, especially when they are natural defenders.
In short, I find the return to a back three/five to not suit the players we have and to greatly reduce attacking options. Wing-backs who are really defenders, two in front of the defence getting overrun in and out of possession, and an isolated front three with little service and no space to operate in. Going to a back five and sticking with two in central midfield has (IMO) compounded the problem. Last season we had three, albeit with one (Carey) playing a more advanced role. Add into that mix a main centre-forward who currently can’t buy a goal – the headed chances against Burnley and Watford should have gone in – and you have, quite frankly, an impotent mess.
We started the season assuming as forward options, once Dykes opted to go somewhere else, Leaburn and Mbick as the big guys, Kelman and Godden as the goalscorers. Kelman got injured and is only just coming back, Godden is still out injured, and Mbick looks like a player asked to play at a higher level on his return from a long-term injury. Leaburn has done all that could be asked of him largely on his own, except put the ball in the net. There’s no easy answer to all this, except perhaps to go back to three behind the front man and bear the main responsibility for creating and putting away chances, as Grant did when fed by TC against Bristol City.
Let’s not pretend that the 4-2-3-1 we started the season with has worked like a dream. We won the first three thanks to coming from behind at home to Derby, eeking out a one-goal win at home to Preston (two teams which have struggled so far this season), and had one magnificent backs-to-the-wall victory, at West Ham, helped by an overhead goal from a centre-back and a last-minute missed penalty. We struggled to link up play and in particular to find the right guy to play in the middle of the more forward three. We understandably started with Carey, but the role places an emphasis on coordinating play between the three, picking the right passes, rather than powering forward on your own. We tried Grant in the central role but that didn’t work. Jones has been reluctant to try either Knibbs or Rankin-Costello in the role. Perhaps it is now time to try (with Carey ready from the bench depending on the state of the game). One cliché is that the fastest eight individually do not always produce the fastest boat. If Knibbs is viewed as too lightweight then go for Rankin-Costello.
Another cliché is that every good team knows its strengths and plays to them. Right now we have lost sight of our strengths. Grinding out clean sheets served us well last season but I don’t think the answer right now is to pack the defence. Burnley scored twice with goals from around the edge of the area, Watford could have scored far more than two.
So my advice, for what it is worth, is abandon the back three/five. We don’t have the wing-backs to make it work. If we stick with a back three/five, we need to have a midfield three, not two, they are getting overrun. If we go with 5-3-2 bite the bullet and accept that it means no place for Campbell or Grant, with Carey brought back to a more natural role as he played last season (if his confidence has not been shot). Alternatively, go for the 4-2-3-1 with either Knibbs or Rankin-Costello in the centre of the three. Whether Leaburn needs a rest and whether Mbick or Kelman might start instead is another one for Jones and his team to look at and decide.
Added to all of this, we do need every player to play their hearts out against Norwich (and beyond of course). A week to get ready, no excuses.