Next Three Games May Hold The Key

I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to view the next three games – assuming they survive the weather – as potentially season-defining, especially as by the time they are done and dusted we will probably also have a good idea of our expectations for the transfer window. Home to Reading then (after the diversion of the FA Cup) trips to Rotherham and Bolton. Two of them above us in the league, a position we will probably have to reverse if we are to claim a top-six spot, and the third having surprisingly underperformed to date.

Of course with the season only half completed and with any side capable of going on a run higher (or lower) nothing can be said with certainty. But you’d get good odds on us overhauling any of the top three, and decent ones on us closing a 10 points gap to fourth-placed Huddersfield. There’s no current indication of anyone below us at present looking likely to burst onto the promotion scene (although no doubt one will), with Rotherham and Peterborough probably the two that would have expected to be higher than they are. So on that very provisional basis you could suggest that seven teams – Reading, Barnsley, Stockport, Leyton Orient, Mansfield, Bolton and ourselves – are in a scrap from now on for two play-off spots. No disrespect intended, but I suspect most people would be surprised if Stockport, Orient or Mansfield were to claim one of them. That leaves Reading, despite their problems, Barnsley, Bolton and us – ie in the next few weeks we play two of our three major contenders for a play-off place.

As things stand, clearly on a points-per-game basis extended over a full season we would miss out. So we have to outperform them in the second half of the season, starting with at least not losing to those we cannot afford to see move further away from us. I’d suggest five points (a win and two draws), arguably three (if three draws), might be the minimum requirement. It’s too early to call them six-pointers, but if we lose to Reading and/or Bolton it would be a serious blow to our hopes.

It's not as if we can draw any reliable conclusions about how we are likely to perform in the second half of the season. We started and ended the first half in fine fettle, with three consecutive victories to open the campaign and now three to finish 2024. In between of course we’ve gleaned just 15 points from 13 games. With the glorious victory over Wycombe (there was a bar in Aix-en-Provence that was, for a short period of time, more Charlton than Cezanne) we can point to having beaten Birmingham (crazily now being cited by the bookies at 50/1 on for promotion), Bolton and Wycombe and drawn with Wrexham, Barnsley, Stockport and Mansfield. We also have losses to Stevenage, Bristol Rovers, Exeter and Crawley (with no disrespect intended to any of them, the outcomes were not flukes).

So, have we rediscovered our early season mojo and are set to continue to close in on a play-off spot, or just had a second good run about to be ended, as was the first (at the end of August), by Reading?

Some things have gone right of late. Jones’ return has stiffened the defence, with a quite dependable trio of him, Mitchell and Gillesphey, while the switching of Small to the right side has been effective, reducing the impact of the loss of Ramsay, and has enabled Jones the Boss to return to a 3-5-2/5-3-2 (or however it gets described and sometimes tweaked). After suspensions Docherty and Berry have returned with what seems like greater purpose, certainly greater goal threat, with Taylor and Anderson now having to bide their time, while up front Leaburn’s continuing rehabilitation has come with goals and Campbell has added pace alongside him, notching a couple himself, even though being among the subs is harsh on Godden.

In addition, aside from the bug which seemed to influence selection for the Northampton game, we’ve not suffered recently from fresh injuries. As a result of all this we’ve come some way towards having a settled and reliable side, something which a month or so ago looked a long way off. The message ahead of the three games coming up surely has to be to not let standards drop one iota, which means more determined and committed displays over the full game.

Whether Jones will be pressing the owners to provide a signing or two in January to bolster a play-offs push I’ve no idea. Clearly we cannot afford to lose Jones to Wycombe (or anyone else), or Leaburn. Letting either leave would send entirely the wrong message. But if Ramsay and Aneke are close to being available again, however rusty, that will feel like two new signings (I’m assuming Watson is further away). There are plenty who would benefit from going out on loan, if Jones wants to streamline the squad and if temporary homes can be found, while others could be offloaded if there are offers.

The call normally goes up for a more creative midfielder, but I’m just not sure Jones wants to operate with a real playmaker. If you assume we have Coventry, Docherty and Berry as the current first-choice trio, that leaves Taylor, Anderson and Campbell(A) as the back-ups, under the current formation. It clearly is an area where some changes could be made.

Same could be said about the forwards. Leaburn, Campbell(T), Godden, Ahadme, Kanu, Aneke and Hylton suggests seven competing for two starting places and two or three on the bench. Each has their own story: Leaburn coming back after a long lay-off, Campbell(T) still being converted from a wide starter (but still used in that role as and when), Godden with a good goals-per-minute record but not having had as many starts as he would have expected, Ahadme proving disappointing so far but also not getting a consistent run in the team, Kanu returning from injury, Aneke as usual absent for so long, Hylton really viewed as a stop-gap. Fact is with half the season gone our leading scorer in the league is on five and just makes the division’s top 30.

It’s perhaps fairer to look at the return for all those who have played in the two forward spots. Godden (5), Leaburn (4), Campbell(T) (2), Ahadme (1), Aneke (1), Hylton (1), Kanu (1). That makes 15 combined (if my numbers are correct), implying a front-two contribution over a full season of around 30. That’s not terrible, but it isn’t great either. We have scored 27 goals in 22 games and that’s not good enough for a promotion challenge. No team above us has scored fewer and three below us have scored more. But we’ve scored 9 in our last three games, so is the problem already being resolved, with Berry and Docherty have chipped in 7 between them (8 from midfield if you add the one from Coventry).

You’ve got to assume that Jones and his team, and the owners, have been working on the changes we would like to make to make us better and propel us truly into the promotion mix. But before that can happen we have these three games to deal with.