Very Close To Great Win

Today we were set to either take a material step to closing the gap on the top six, to suffer the opposite and fall further behind, or emerge with a point and at least keep the unbeaten run going and remain on an upward curve. This was always going to be a big one, for us more than them as we have the gap to close. In the end we had to settle for a point as we failed to find the goal to win it as a pretty even contest for the first hour – with Reading having shaded the first half on decent chances and started the second better than us – turned in our favour as they seemed to wilt, perhaps suffering from the extra game over the holiday period. Well before the end they were looking content to hold what they had.

You could look on the game as highlighting that both sides lacked the quality to make the most of good positions. Both had decent chances but clear-cut ones were very few, and as the game progressed they fell to us. That we didn’t score, and win, was down to a Leaburn shot after their keeper dropped a cross being blocked on the line followed by some decent saves, not getting the rub of the green inside the box, plus sometimes a lack of composure in picking the final option, most obviously involving Small down the right side, who had them for toast but couldn’t convert that into a goal for himself or setting up one for someone else. It wasn’t one you’d say ‘two points dropped’ but we were very close to what would have been a massive win.

With the Crawley game having been called off, easing concerns over legginess and the possible need to rest some, to nobody’s surprise Jones named an unchanged side, for the third successive game (ie making it the same team for four in a row). But there was a change on the bench, with Aneke deemed ready to return to the fold, leapfrogging Kanu with Hylton dropping out. For the record, Reading – who had of course played on new year’s day – made three changes to a winning side, two enforced by injuries.

The first half was nip and tuck throughout. The stats at the break indicated we had 55% possession and six shots (one on target) against four (and zero) for them. But they don’t really tell the story. Reading got forward quickly in numbers and caused our defence problems throughout. We only kept a clean sheet by virtue of two outstanding blocks (first from Berry, getting in the way of a Savage effort, then Jones getting across to prevent their guy scoring from close in), plus a bad miss, when their guy was left in space at the near post only for his flick on the cross to him going wide of the far post.

For our part Small was a constant threat down the right and Campbell was close on a few occasions, especially when he caught a defender trying to shepherd the ball going towards their goal, cut inside, but shot too close to the keeper. Bulk of possession, more shots apparently, some decent crosses which almost found their mark, but nothing you could point to as clear-cut or which forced something special from their keeper. Perhaps the closest we came was a good shout for a penalty as Campbell seemed to be taken down after he’d laid off the ball.

There was a curious and possibly unsavoury incident just before the break as the ref – who never seemed fully in control of the game and made some poor decisions on what were and were not fouls, most obviously ignoring several deliberate blocks on our players moving forward – seemed to give Reading a free-kick only for the ball to run on and Edwards to clear, then for him to get cleaned out by their guy’s late challenge. The ref ended up giving them the free-kick but also giving a yellow for the challenge, perhaps the doubt over whether he was pushed and couldn’t stop himself preventing it being a red.

Reading did come out of the blocks the faster in the second half. They almost took the lead at the start as Gillsephey was bundled off the ball and their guy was in on goal, only for Maynard-Brewer to get a vital touch to turn the ball wide. They also had an appeal for a penalty as a volley at the far post was blocked by Leaburn, perhaps with an outstretched arm, but from close range.

That was to be about as good as it got for Reading as the momentum swung in our favour, leading to a procession of chances/near misses. We seemed to have taken the lead on 52 minutes as Leaburn played in Campbell to run through on goal and plant a shot into the net, only for the game to be called back for an offside decision, one which looked a close call (similar to Leaburn being played in to score against Wycombe). Then Docherty was caught late having headed the ball by their guy on a yellow, the ref deciding against a second one, Leaburn’s low cross was not converted, then a corner was half-cleared and Docherty hit it on the volley only for their keeper to gather it well low down.

On 68 minutes again we thought we had the lead. A routine cross from our right was dropped by their keeper and Leaburn was on hand to plant it into what we assumed was an empty net, only for a guy to have moved back to block the effort on the line. On 74 minutes their keeper kept us out again, with a badly worked ending up with Small on the other side and his ball back in met by Jones to divert it goalwards. Then on 80 minutes Small took on and beat two defenders. A third had come across and should have cleared but missed the chance, leaving Small in space around the edge of the box. But he shot wildly and wide.

Jones made our first change with about 10 minutes to go, introducing Aneke (this time leapfrogging Ahadme) for a tiring Leaburn. The stage seemed set for Chuks to win it at the death, but nothing fell his way. Campbell cramped up and was replaced by Godden and he had the final shot of the match, into the keeper’s midriff from close range but a narrow angle.

We can all look at the table tonight and think about where we would be if we’d taken one of the chances. The more positive aspect is that after three consecutive victories we’ve ended up dominating a team currently in a top-six position, one by the end very grateful not to have lost. If we maintain this level of performance, ideally improve with slightly more composure and better decision-making when in sight of goal, we have good reason to believe that we can be in the mix. So not a great day, but a decent one.

Next Three Games May Hold The Key

I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to view the next three games – assuming they survive the weather – as potentially season-defining, especially as by the time they are done and dusted we will probably also have a good idea of our expectations for the transfer window. Home to Reading then (after the diversion of the FA Cup) trips to Rotherham and Bolton. Two of them above us in the league, a position we will probably have to reverse if we are to claim a top-six spot, and the third having surprisingly underperformed to date.

Of course with the season only half completed and with any side capable of going on a run higher (or lower) nothing can be said with certainty. But you’d get good odds on us overhauling any of the top three, and decent ones on us closing a 10 points gap to fourth-placed Huddersfield. There’s no current indication of anyone below us at present looking likely to burst onto the promotion scene (although no doubt one will), with Rotherham and Peterborough probably the two that would have expected to be higher than they are. So on that very provisional basis you could suggest that seven teams – Reading, Barnsley, Stockport, Leyton Orient, Mansfield, Bolton and ourselves – are in a scrap from now on for two play-off spots. No disrespect intended, but I suspect most people would be surprised if Stockport, Orient or Mansfield were to claim one of them. That leaves Reading, despite their problems, Barnsley, Bolton and us – ie in the next few weeks we play two of our three major contenders for a play-off place.

As things stand, clearly on a points-per-game basis extended over a full season we would miss out. So we have to outperform them in the second half of the season, starting with at least not losing to those we cannot afford to see move further away from us. I’d suggest five points (a win and two draws), arguably three (if three draws), might be the minimum requirement. It’s too early to call them six-pointers, but if we lose to Reading and/or Bolton it would be a serious blow to our hopes.

It's not as if we can draw any reliable conclusions about how we are likely to perform in the second half of the season. We started and ended the first half in fine fettle, with three consecutive victories to open the campaign and now three to finish 2024. In between of course we’ve gleaned just 15 points from 13 games. With the glorious victory over Wycombe (there was a bar in Aix-en-Provence that was, for a short period of time, more Charlton than Cezanne) we can point to having beaten Birmingham (crazily now being cited by the bookies at 50/1 on for promotion), Bolton and Wycombe and drawn with Wrexham, Barnsley, Stockport and Mansfield. We also have losses to Stevenage, Bristol Rovers, Exeter and Crawley (with no disrespect intended to any of them, the outcomes were not flukes).

So, have we rediscovered our early season mojo and are set to continue to close in on a play-off spot, or just had a second good run about to be ended, as was the first (at the end of August), by Reading?

Some things have gone right of late. Jones’ return has stiffened the defence, with a quite dependable trio of him, Mitchell and Gillesphey, while the switching of Small to the right side has been effective, reducing the impact of the loss of Ramsay, and has enabled Jones the Boss to return to a 3-5-2/5-3-2 (or however it gets described and sometimes tweaked). After suspensions Docherty and Berry have returned with what seems like greater purpose, certainly greater goal threat, with Taylor and Anderson now having to bide their time, while up front Leaburn’s continuing rehabilitation has come with goals and Campbell has added pace alongside him, notching a couple himself, even though being among the subs is harsh on Godden.

In addition, aside from the bug which seemed to influence selection for the Northampton game, we’ve not suffered recently from fresh injuries. As a result of all this we’ve come some way towards having a settled and reliable side, something which a month or so ago looked a long way off. The message ahead of the three games coming up surely has to be to not let standards drop one iota, which means more determined and committed displays over the full game.

Whether Jones will be pressing the owners to provide a signing or two in January to bolster a play-offs push I’ve no idea. Clearly we cannot afford to lose Jones to Wycombe (or anyone else), or Leaburn. Letting either leave would send entirely the wrong message. But if Ramsay and Aneke are close to being available again, however rusty, that will feel like two new signings (I’m assuming Watson is further away). There are plenty who would benefit from going out on loan, if Jones wants to streamline the squad and if temporary homes can be found, while others could be offloaded if there are offers.

The call normally goes up for a more creative midfielder, but I’m just not sure Jones wants to operate with a real playmaker. If you assume we have Coventry, Docherty and Berry as the current first-choice trio, that leaves Taylor, Anderson and Campbell(A) as the back-ups, under the current formation. It clearly is an area where some changes could be made.

Same could be said about the forwards. Leaburn, Campbell(T), Godden, Ahadme, Kanu, Aneke and Hylton suggests seven competing for two starting places and two or three on the bench. Each has their own story: Leaburn coming back after a long lay-off, Campbell(T) still being converted from a wide starter (but still used in that role as and when), Godden with a good goals-per-minute record but not having had as many starts as he would have expected, Ahadme proving disappointing so far but also not getting a consistent run in the team, Kanu returning from injury, Aneke as usual absent for so long, Hylton really viewed as a stop-gap. Fact is with half the season gone our leading scorer in the league is on five and just makes the division’s top 30.

It’s perhaps fairer to look at the return for all those who have played in the two forward spots. Godden (5), Leaburn (4), Campbell(T) (2), Ahadme (1), Aneke (1), Hylton (1), Kanu (1). That makes 15 combined (if my numbers are correct), implying a front-two contribution over a full season of around 30. That’s not terrible, but it isn’t great either. We have scored 27 goals in 22 games and that’s not good enough for a promotion challenge. No team above us has scored fewer and three below us have scored more. But we’ve scored 9 in our last three games, so is the problem already being resolved, with Berry and Docherty have chipped in 7 between them (8 from midfield if you add the one from Coventry).

You’ve got to assume that Jones and his team, and the owners, have been working on the changes we would like to make to make us better and propel us truly into the promotion mix. But before that can happen we have these three games to deal with.