Why Is Our Record So Poor Against Midtable Teams?

A disappointing game, performance and result, one that you really struggle to take any positives from. Perhaps one or two lessons. From our perspective the first half, Godden’s early header chance notwithstanding, was an embarrassment as progressively Exeter pushed us back and for periods we were unable to either control the ball and possession (other than passes across the back line) or find any outlet with long balls forward. We did improve in the second half, but until late on only to the extent of making it an even contest.

The chances which Jones said not taking cost us the game came in the closing minutes, by which time we had thrown caution to the wind. Yes, we should have taken at least one of the two gilt-edged ones. That would have given us a point, perhaps shifted the focus in favour of five unbeaten (forget the cup games) instead of now four without a win. Even then it would only have amounted to sharing the spoils with another mid-table team, one which carried very little attacking threat, despite a decent display of leading the line by Magennis, but which gave a demonstration why they have conceded only 10 goals in 13 games. We started the season with three wins on the back of three clean sheets, keeping things (very) tight at the back and relying on nicking one at the other end. We can hardly complain that Exeter pretty much did the same to us.

Not much point a day later dwelling much on the game itself. In the first half early on we had a good Godden header saved and later a Taylor volley which may have been on target but was blocked. Exeter had a couple of promising situations but seemed to take wrong options. At the break both teams had had one effort each on target; but Exeter’s 58% possession and 11 corners (to our two) told the story. We did show an improvement in the second half but, after a whipped Edwards cross just eluded Leaburn, went behind as a central defender was allowed to move freely from a central position to meet a corner at the near post and gave it the deft flick necessary to divert it into the net. Our two golden chances to equalise came in the final 10 minutes of normal time. First a long ball forward was nodded down (by Purrington it seems) and dropped kindly for Godden in space, but his shot on the turn went agonisingly wide. Then from a corner Docherty headed back and Mitchell(A) missed the target from close range. Exeter did also clear a stoppage time scramble off the line.

The team may have shown only two changes from Southend but there were five from our previous league game (Wrexham). It seems that Mannion and Anderson were unavailable and according to Jones Edun on the bench wasn’t fit to play a part. That meant effectively we went into the game short of Mannion, Ramsay, Watson, Potts, Edun, Anderson, Aneke, Campbell(T) and Kanu. If you look at the whole squad really of those available only Asiimwe (just back from loan), Dixon, Rylah and Mbick, all players still learning their trade, were not involved. That is getting down to the bare bones.

Injuries have had a serious impact on recent campaigns, just that we hoped this one would be different. It isn’t an excuse for underperformance but is a mitigating factor, especially as the changes it means work against continuity and developing understanding. Perhaps it’s also having an impact on our approach to games. For too long yesterday we seemed content to be at 0-0. That might be acceptable against Birmingham, even at a stretch at the moment Wrexham. But surely not yesterday.

Jones said after the game that we were “nowhere near” in the first half. But that has happened so often this season (once again I’d highlight our first half v second half record) that it only raises the question why. Is it the mindset going into the game? Is it the gameplan they go onto the pitch with? It’s as if we’ve got locked into a pattern we can’t break, one which early in the season had at least some rationale as we looked to Aneke, then Leaburn, to get off the bench. Now we’re making changes to personnel and formation when we go behind and have to chase the game. Whatever happened to imposing yourselves on the opposition, giving them problems to try to deal with? Our passive approach while level – once behind we brought on Ahadme and Small with a switch to a back five, then Berry was introduced – cost us the game, not taking the late chances denied us being able to take something from it.

So where does the problem lie? Is it a midfield without pace unable to provide support to the front players, or forwards’ lack of movement and ability to hold the ball (or to combine effectively)? Or is it an unavoidable consequence of the ‘safety first’ approach, which involves midfielders so often lofting the ball forward without direction any time they are put under pressure? I suspect all three.

What’s the answer? Has to begin with a deep conversation with the physios. Just how long are we going to be without certain players, most obviously Ramsay, Jones and Aneke, also Kanu and Campbell(T), the two forwards who provide the pace option from whatever position. On the basis of that, look at what we do have and decide whether we are just looking to hold the fort until players return or whether we have to plan without them - in which case all thoughts of Plan A, or B, should go out of the window and you start from scratch looking at what you have. 

If you look at a breakdown of our results for the 14 games so far there might be a clue. Our overall record against the teams above us (won two, drawn three, lost two) is pretty much on a par with that for those below us (won three, drawn one, lost three). But the more remarkable thing is that the two defeats to those above us have been against Reading and Exeter, teams outside the top six. We’ve played four of the top six and haven’t lost (one win, three draws). And of the teams below us, our three wins have been against teams in the bottom six (Shrewsbury, Leyton Orient, Wigan).

So if you take out games against the top six and the bottom six – which arguably leaves the games you need to be winning consistently, or at least not losing, to be in the promotion frame – our record reads played seven, won one (Bolton, a team most would have expected to be in the top six), drawn one (Rotherham ditto), and lost five (Reading, Blackpool, Stevenage, Bristol Rovers and Exeter). If it’s types of games/opposition we are underperforming against you want to identify, there it is. Just why this should be is another matter of course, but you might conclude that against the leading teams we go out full of determination and resolve, against the worst teams we have the power to beat them, but against those around us, especially those which do not look strong on paper or reputation, far too often we are coming up short. That smacks of either not being in the right mindset for a scrap, or having the wrong tactics/formation for particular opponents, or just not being good enough when our backs are not against the wall – or a combination of all three.

It is far too soon to be talking of another season lost (which is not to deny that it is clearly a possibility). We know we can be competitive against the best in this league and we know we need key players back available asap. What is also obvious to all is that we have to improve if we are to get into the play-offs