U18s Fall Just Short

So, not to be for the U18s today, we fell short against a determined Birmingham team and weren’t able to close our season with a trophy. Whereas against Barnsley in the semi-final we were never behind, but were pegged back three times before pulling clear, today we were never ahead. We managed to level things up twice but not a third time, with Birmingham taking the lead early in extra time and seeing things out, despite going down to 10 for the second period of the extra 30 minutes, the game ending with most on the pitch (subs being the notable exceptions) barely able to stand let alone run.

On the balance of play and chances created, we were hard done-by. The man of the match for me was the Birmingham keeper, who pulled off a number of excellent saves and otherwise dealt capably with balls into the box. And while against Barnsley Mbick was simply impossible for them to handle and Casey bagged a brace, today Birmingham had a central defender able to match Mbick for physique, at least making it an even contest, while Casey cut a largely frustrated figure and was substituted with around 20 minutes of normal time left. Birmingham defended capably throughout – despite our pressure and chances we ended up scoring with a superb low strike from outside the box and a rather soft penalty as the defender clipped sub Fuller’s trailing leg. By contrast, their goals came as their effective main forward sprung an offside trap and chipped our keeper, as a break led to a guy being found in space inside the box with time to pick his spot, and with a sub getting through a couple of ineffective challenges and powering home.

The game overall probably turned on the moment when we’d levelled at 1-1 and almost went ahead, only for Birmingham to break forward and take the lead instead. We were back chasing the game and made substitutions relatively early. Birmingham made theirs late, which meant that when we went into extra time suddenly they were the fresher, livelier side. They took the lead again and seemed set fair to increase their lead, only for a late tackle on sub Rylah down the line to lead to a second yellow, which meant that in the final 15 minutes Birmingham were able to focus on just getting everyone behind the ball and clearing their lines.

It was a game that did credit to both clubs – which might be the first time in my life I’ve said something nice about Birmingham. They dug in very deep and, while they could have had no complaints if we’d emerged victorious, we have to doff our caps to them on the day.

Of course, after the semi-final and given their combined 87 goals this season (now 88 after Mbick converted the penalty), much of the interest for us was another opportunity to assess whether or not one or both of the prolific front two might be ready to play an important role for the first team in the season ahead, even to the extent of persuading Jones and the club that we don’t need to sign another forward. Asking a lot of course, but players that young have broken through before and both Mbick and Casey have been involved with the first team squad this season.

Nobody’s going to draw conclusions based on one game and decisions will be taken by people much more capable than me of assessing potential and stage of development.  All you can say is that we’re in the frustrating position of having a range of possibilities up front, some or all of which might come off, but can’t say we have options you can be confident will be sufficient to lead us into a promotion challenge.

Of course there’s May. We know if he stays fit and available, gets any sort of service, and he’s good for 20+ goals a season. I think the general assumption is that if a front two – or the combined contributions of all those who occupy the front two positions - scores 35 between them you are going to be in the running. It may be old fashioned for some, but that points to us needing a reliable partner for May who can contribute 10-15 goals, take the weight physically, in a ‘big man/little man’ partnership. (I am here assuming that May will not be sold and in this world ‘never say never’.)

As things stand we have available Aneke, Leaburn, Kanu, plus Mbick and Caskey. We have to assume that Aneke will have to be limited to the 30 minute cameo, we have no real idea how well Leaburn will return after a lengthy absence or indeed whether he will be a good foil for May, we’ve seen Kanu come on considerably last season without it looking like he would be a natural partner for Alfie, and surely we have to conclude that at this stage meaningful contributions from Mbick and/or Casey next season would be a very valuable bonus, not something we can rely on.

So I’m left thinking we do still need another forward, whether or not it’s Motherwell’s Bair. I confess I was slightly surprised that we didn’t make an offer to retain Wickham. For our situation he would seem to fit the bill. I remember that Sir Chris began our title-winning campaign with Hayes alongside Wright-Phillips. In that role, to accompany the prolific scorer, he wasn’t doing badly – but then up cropped Kermorgant and the rest is history. Now next season perhaps one of the players we have will come through in that fashion, we all hope so of course. But if we are serious about a promotion bid it’s too big a risk not to have a good enough, reliable option, from the start.