U18s Fall Just Short

So, not to be for the U18s today, we fell short against a determined Birmingham team and weren’t able to close our season with a trophy. Whereas against Barnsley in the semi-final we were never behind, but were pegged back three times before pulling clear, today we were never ahead. We managed to level things up twice but not a third time, with Birmingham taking the lead early in extra time and seeing things out, despite going down to 10 for the second period of the extra 30 minutes, the game ending with most on the pitch (subs being the notable exceptions) barely able to stand let alone run.

On the balance of play and chances created, we were hard done-by. The man of the match for me was the Birmingham keeper, who pulled off a number of excellent saves and otherwise dealt capably with balls into the box. And while against Barnsley Mbick was simply impossible for them to handle and Casey bagged a brace, today Birmingham had a central defender able to match Mbick for physique, at least making it an even contest, while Casey cut a largely frustrated figure and was substituted with around 20 minutes of normal time left. Birmingham defended capably throughout – despite our pressure and chances we ended up scoring with a superb low strike from outside the box and a rather soft penalty as the defender clipped sub Fuller’s trailing leg. By contrast, their goals came as their effective main forward sprung an offside trap and chipped our keeper, as a break led to a guy being found in space inside the box with time to pick his spot, and with a sub getting through a couple of ineffective challenges and powering home.

The game overall probably turned on the moment when we’d levelled at 1-1 and almost went ahead, only for Birmingham to break forward and take the lead instead. We were back chasing the game and made substitutions relatively early. Birmingham made theirs late, which meant that when we went into extra time suddenly they were the fresher, livelier side. They took the lead again and seemed set fair to increase their lead, only for a late tackle on sub Rylah down the line to lead to a second yellow, which meant that in the final 15 minutes Birmingham were able to focus on just getting everyone behind the ball and clearing their lines.

It was a game that did credit to both clubs – which might be the first time in my life I’ve said something nice about Birmingham. They dug in very deep and, while they could have had no complaints if we’d emerged victorious, we have to doff our caps to them on the day.

Of course, after the semi-final and given their combined 87 goals this season (now 88 after Mbick converted the penalty), much of the interest for us was another opportunity to assess whether or not one or both of the prolific front two might be ready to play an important role for the first team in the season ahead, even to the extent of persuading Jones and the club that we don’t need to sign another forward. Asking a lot of course, but players that young have broken through before and both Mbick and Casey have been involved with the first team squad this season.

Nobody’s going to draw conclusions based on one game and decisions will be taken by people much more capable than me of assessing potential and stage of development.  All you can say is that we’re in the frustrating position of having a range of possibilities up front, some or all of which might come off, but can’t say we have options you can be confident will be sufficient to lead us into a promotion challenge.

Of course there’s May. We know if he stays fit and available, gets any sort of service, and he’s good for 20+ goals a season. I think the general assumption is that if a front two – or the combined contributions of all those who occupy the front two positions - scores 35 between them you are going to be in the running. It may be old fashioned for some, but that points to us needing a reliable partner for May who can contribute 10-15 goals, take the weight physically, in a ‘big man/little man’ partnership. (I am here assuming that May will not be sold and in this world ‘never say never’.)

As things stand we have available Aneke, Leaburn, Kanu, plus Mbick and Caskey. We have to assume that Aneke will have to be limited to the 30 minute cameo, we have no real idea how well Leaburn will return after a lengthy absence or indeed whether he will be a good foil for May, we’ve seen Kanu come on considerably last season without it looking like he would be a natural partner for Alfie, and surely we have to conclude that at this stage meaningful contributions from Mbick and/or Casey next season would be a very valuable bonus, not something we can rely on.

So I’m left thinking we do still need another forward, whether or not it’s Motherwell’s Bair. I confess I was slightly surprised that we didn’t make an offer to retain Wickham. For our situation he would seem to fit the bill. I remember that Sir Chris began our title-winning campaign with Hayes alongside Wright-Phillips. In that role, to accompany the prolific scorer, he wasn’t doing badly – but then up cropped Kermorgant and the rest is history. Now next season perhaps one of the players we have will come through in that fashion, we all hope so of course. But if we are serious about a promotion bid it’s too big a risk not to have a good enough, reliable option, from the start.

Now For The Reconstruction - Spine Needed

Now the curtain has been drawn, with the campaign concluded (no mentions in dispatches except for Dobson and May, plus Blackett-Taylor before he left), gongs awarded (and congrats to all the recipients, most obviously May), and now the details on who is for now retained and who released, before the horse-trading of the transfer window itself starts in June. And I think it’s fair to say that we have less idea about the likely composition of the squad come August than in any previous season in living memory.

Much will of course depend on the budget, but not so much how as regards the money made available for new signings but rather the extent to which the owners are prepared to carry the weight of players still under contract but not featuring in Jones’ plans and unable/unwilling to be moved on, bearing in mind financial fair play rules. We know Jones wants a smaller squad, as did those who went before him, and that he is at least inclined to avoid dependence on loan signings. What we don’t know is whether incomings and outgoings will need to be broadly balanced, or whether a slow pace of the latter will slow that of the former. What we do know is that many more changes are in store.

Taking each department in turn:

Goalkeeper. With Ward not retained and speculation that we will be targeting a new keeper, nothing is decided. Neither Isted nor Maynard-Brewer will look back on the past season with that much satisfaction and both will be wondering if someone new will be brought in to be Jones’ No.1. Isted has performed well enough in that role, without coming across as outstanding. He has another year on his contract (with an optional further year) and at 27 should be coming into his prime. Maynard-Brewer at 24 has time on his side (and a contract until 2026). If we spend money on a new first-choice keeper you would expect that to result in one of the two moving on. Maynard-Brewer might be ready to accept another year as back-up but surely not as a third-choice, Isted may not wish to stay as a back-up.

Conclusion: In my head the ideal set-up is a clear first-choice keeper in his prime, a second-choice (probably a bit younger) champing at the bit and ready to step up if injury, suspension or form demand, and a third-choice, probably a veteran, ready to accept playing little and being involved in coaching. Without Ward we don’t have the last of these and now we don’t know if Isted or Maynard-Brewer will be happy to stay if someone comes in above them. Isted doesn’t look comfortable in the air and has made errors, nor does he come across as able to command and direct the back line. He is nevertheless a decent keeper while Maynard-Brewer can develop if he gets the chance. So be it, but if Jones wants a new No.1 hopefully we have a target in mind and get this one resolved quickly.

Centre-back: With Hector and Thomas released, on the books now we have Jones, Gillesphey, Edmonds-Green, Ness (contract extended) and Mitchell (returning on loan). Hector and Thomas both leave with all good wishes, fact is the defence has failed collectively this season and simply couldn’t be revamped if they were kept on (Jones has another year on his contract while Gillesphey and Edmonds-Green were only signed in January).

Conclusion: We need a new leader to be the lynchpin in central defence, whether we play a back four or three/five. None of those retained have looked like they can step into that role. Ness had a disappointing season, set in the context of the promise he showed before getting injured late the previous one, Jones (strangely absent from the end of the season) seemed to suffer from mistakes made, Gillesphey has been strangely low-key so far, and Edmonds-Green looks like a valuable member of a three but not the leader. For me, it’s all down to the new signing and then fit the pieces around him.

Full-backs/wing-backs: With Chin the only real change to date, we have on the books Watson, Ramsay, Asiimwe, Edun and Small. Watson has (like Jones) not featured of late, Edun has generally been out of favour, while Asiimwe perhaps didn’t make the mark this season that I and others thought he would. He still has time on his hands. That all left Ramsay (despite injury) and newcomer Small as the players with the shirts.

Conclusion: Much of course depends on the formation. If we stick with a back five and wing-backs, all the signs are that Ramsay and Small will start the next season as first-choice. That’s tough on Watson (who did after all make a League One team of the season I saw based on match ratings) and certainly not what Edun would have been expecting when he signed from Blackburn. But if all four are happy to stay this is probably the one area which looks reasonably settled – and already probably good enough.

Midfield: If the defence has been set up for a revamp, the midfield is currently utter chaos. The wording of the club’s statement would seem to draw a line under Dobson (but never say never, perhaps they’re haggling over a price) and we have to assume he will not be with us. Of those involved in the squad at the end of the season, we now have just Coventry, Anderson and our only winger Campbell (with LuaLua not offered a new contract and Rylah still developing). Added to them are Fraser and McGrandles (returning - however reluctantly or temporarily – from loan), Henry also coming back, and there is the as yet unknown Taylor if he is fit. This assumes that none of the midfield loanees – Watson(L), Bakinson, Camara or Fiorini – are bought, with Payne and Jaiyesimi not offered new contracts.

Conclusion: All we can say for now is that Coventry will have to step up to be the fulcrum of a new midfield, one unfortunately it seems without Dobson. Anderson’s emergence was one of the few bright spots of the season, but what role he may play will presumably be down to who is brought in – and we clearly need a few. It is hard to imagine Fraser or McGrandles being happy (ie motivated) to stay and Taylor is just an unquantifiable factor. At least Jones has almost a blank sheet to create an effective unit.

Forwards: Options up front are equally impossible to qualify. Without Ladapo and Wickham, we have May, Leaburn, Kanu and Aneke, with Casey and Mbick capable it seems of forcing their way into contention.

Conclusion:  If we knew that Leaburn will be able to pick up where he left off and that Aneke can be relied on to continue to at least play the 30-min sub role, you might say that what we have could be pretty good, given that we can rely on May scoring goals. Fact is we can’t be sure on those two fronts. If we are going to be pushing for promotion we will need a new signing, a selected partner for May. Leaburn and Kanu are full of promise and hopefully will both have the blinding seasons we believe they are capable of. But if I was sitting down to put together a team for a promotion campaign I would want the forward we were looking for last season, the role which Tedic, Ladapo and Wickham were brought in to fill and which Aneke couldn’t provide regularly or for more than a part of a game. Someone who will lead the line, chip in 10-15 goals, to complement May’s 20+.

Overall Conclusion: If you talk about successful teams having a strong spine you have to conclude that right now we don’t have a spine at all. The keeper position is it seems up for grabs, the leader in central defence isn’t there, the mainstay of midfield (Coventry) is as yet us unproven, and while we trust in May he needs a reliable partner. For sure that underlines the extent of the rebuilding required if we are to compete at the top. Sir Chris did it with an almost completely new team, Jones by contrast has plenty of available players to fit in around a new spine. You might conclude that there are only perhaps four new signings needed, three if we stick with our current two keepers. Just that they need to be top quality, all to be in the category of the eight players capable of winning promotion and performing in the Championship.