Both Impostors To The Fore Of Late

No doubt about it, a win on the road, our first since April and against a team on paper in good form, was just what we needed after back-to-back defeats had wiped out the optimism generated by the win over Reading. And perhaps any assessment of just where we are, and might realistically hope to be, has to encompass that mini-series of four games, arguably the 10-game period since the departure of Holden. And the conclusion has to be, not surprisingly, that neither the post-Reading euphoria nor the post-Bolton gloom is justified.

The bare facts are that of the last 10 games we’ve won five, drawn three, and lost two, securing 18 points. Extend that return over a full season and you end up with 82/83 points and very probably a play-off place. OK, we can’t ignore what went before. We have 21 points from 15 games, so extending the recent return over the remaining 31 matches and adding in what we have you end up with 76/77 points for the full season. Last season that total would have had you on the fringe of sixth place, the season before out of the picture, and the season before that comfortably taking the final play-off spot.

Such calculations are for sure for the birds at this stage. But I’d suggest they are not entirely meaningless. They support the idea that the play-offs are still a realistic objective – automatic promotion quite clearly is not – if we can improve as a team through the remainder of the campaign. After all, we have League One’s joint top scorer and joint top provider (who has also contributed goals), while in many respects the team is still learning how to play together, is incorporating a number of youngsters still learning their craft at the first team level, and has had to adjust to a number of injuries, ones which clearly disrupted the start of the season (Aneke, Leaburn, then Fraser and Campbell) and continue to do so (Aneke again, now it seems Camara, plus Isted, Edun, Taylor and McGrandles).

We have to give a hearty cheer for the play-offs as without them we might be saying our season is already over. The top three are out of reach and if we do steadily improve they will be out of sight by the time we might be on their level, as Bolton taught us. As it is, we can work on improvement, on current form stay in touch with the top six, look to make some changes in the January window, and generate that momentum in the final third of the season to get a play-off spot and go into that contest with a realistic prospect of success.

Nobody of course can say this is going to happen. There are currently seven teams above us outside the top three with similar ambitions. Only that it is possible, perhaps with good fortune from now on with injuries and suspensions and with an inspired signing or two in January (I’m reminded of Curbs’ addition of Youds and Mills at just the right time). In the interim, games against any of those seven teams need to be viewed as six-pointers which, given we have ground to make up, we cannot afford to lose; and on that front we have no such challenges in November – which begins with trip to Portsmouth, where we always win, followed by three games which on paper at least we would be favourites to win (Northampton, Carlisle and Cheltenham).

I guess my conclusion would be that there are still good grounds for optimism but there are bound to be setbacks along the way, we are not at a level (yet) where we can blow away teams in this division with something to spare. We remain fragile at the back, as was still evident last night, and sometimes the opposition can snuff out our attacking threat, even if we have options to mix things up (less so now without Aneke and Camara). And we have yet to forge a strong and reliable spine, while as pointed out on Charlton TV some players are looking world-beaters when they come off the bench but struggle when they start.

That said, the squad itself is very consistent. All Appleton has done so far is make different selections from the same pack, using different players in positions but sticking to the same formation. That’s not a criticism btw. If we go into every game with an 18-man squad you’d say that, when all are fit and available, 15 or 16 places are pretty much taken: two keepers (and Maynard-Brewer has stepped up admirably), in defence Watson(T), Hector, Jones, Thomas and Ness, arguably Asiimwe too; in central midfield Dobson, Watson(L) and Fraser, out wide Blackett-Taylor and Campbell(T), up front May, Leaburn and (just about) Tedic. That leaves Abankwah, Edun (when fit) and Chin to be ready to step in to cover for absentees, Anderson and Kirk to do the same in midfield/out wide (with Camara, Taylor and McGrandles when fit), and Campbell(C) wide or up front, plus Aneke when he returns. Right now you’d say Abankwah, Anderson, Kirk, perhaps McGrandles, and Campbell(C) are competing for the final two squad places each game.  

Come January and nobody will be surprised if Kirk and McGrandles find other clubs, the real issue on departures being whether CBT or Leaburn are prised away. It would be surprising to see any of those currently out on loan - Mitchell, Elerewe, Henry, Jaiyesimi, Payne, Kanu – brought back to play a meaningful role this season at least; perhaps Mitchell or Elerewe and Kanu, depending on whether their development is best served getting gametime elsewhere and whether our needs have changed due to injuries.

As for new signings, in defence that’s surely down to assessments of Hector and Ness, whether the former is our leader in that area and can better organise and direct than to date and whether the latter is ready to step in if needs be (last season the answer would have been ‘yes’). For me Fraser is a No.10 and either plays that role or does not start, him and Dobson in the central positions being too big a risk and asking too much of Dobson. Watson(L) is shaping up well alongside the skipper, but with Anderson currently not involved (surprisingly) and Taylor injured, we look light in that area. Up front, we hope we’ve not yet seen the best from Tedic and if an offer for CBT were to be accepted, given his contract expiry in the summer, he would need to be replaced.

As for last night, with hindsight we can be pleased. I don’t really know whether Wigan were just very much off form in the first half or that was just down to us playing well. They seemed very open at the back and generally lethargic, we took advantage. The three goals we scored were all pretty good in their own way: May finding space between defenders close to goal for a ball back in – and managing to once more bundle the ball home after his header had been very well saved; good build-up and movement creating the space for May to move across the box before shaping up and sending a low shot through bodies and into the corner; and then the pick as Dobson (who was also instrumental in the first) created space with a deft touch, played a good ball forward to Leaburn, whose delightful touch on enabled CBT to shoot straight away past their keeper.

That we came close to giving away two points is undeniable. Wigan’s substitutions made them more of a threat – and they were a threat before we scored our first, not just the free kick which came back off the bar but also another example of a fairly simple ball over the top into space leaving their guy with a run on goal as our advancing back line was torn apart, again. Late on it appeared we had seen off the danger and were coasting to the win, only for Wigan to score. That changed the picture as our substitutions – with Watson(L), Leaburn and Blackett-Taylor by then having departed – had left us rather disjointed, confused, and unable to react. When their second went in – the cross from the left somehow going between several defenders – with still six minutes of stoppage time to play out we did fear the worse. But despite a shot over the bar from their keeper up for a corner we did hold on, to much relief.

We would be feeling very different this morning had Wigan completed a remarkable recovery. Just as we felt very different after Bolton compared with after Reading. As someone once noted, “if you can meet success and failure and treat them both as impostors, then you are a balanced man, my son”. We are still very much a work in progress I suspect we will have more occasions to keep those words in mind.