A Take On Next Season's Options

Quite naturally when you come to the end of a season and are looking to the next, once you know which division you will be in, you look at the squad and consider where it needs strengthening in light of the objectives for the next campaign. I think this time around it is exceptionally difficult for us. No question about the objective as, rightly or wrongly, any season in this division which ends without promotion is a failure (which of course does not mean we have any actual right to be around the top).

Consequently assessments over who stays and who goes have to be based around whether the end-result – of course allowing for the incoming players – is a squad good enough to get promoted from this league, with all that involves (Mickey Mouse competitions etc). But there are so many imponderables this time around, so many key decisions for Sandgaard and Jackson to be making (and while others contribute theirs should be the opinions which matter).

You normally start with identifying the core of the team you wish to build on and around, its spine: goalkeeper, then one or two in the main areas. It would also be normal to discuss what are the main strengths of the squad and, based on this, what formation and gameplan would be considered Plan A. We are doing things the other way around it seems, being wedded to a 3-5-2/5-3-2 formation, so the question becomes who do we need to optimise that structure. That approach of course has both strengths and weaknesses – unless somebody believes that the chosen formation is the best of all worlds.

This season we have asked a number of players to operate in a role they would not have considered to be their normal position: Matthews, Purrington, Clare, Jaiyesimi, Blackett-Taylor. So in a factor for them in deciding whether they wish to stay or go has to be whether they are content for this to continue. Take Clare. Will he want to now be considered a right-sided centre-back rather than a midfielder? I have no idea, but it adds to the uncertainty and problems in drawing firm conclusions.

Now for the units. Goalkeeper. MacGillivray I think it’s fair to say has had a decent but not outstanding season. On the plus side he’s been just about ever-present, undoubtedly was responsible for a number of points we gained through the season with some very good performances. Perhaps in response to some criticism of late he seems to have been coming more off his line to take balls into the box and ideally he would be more commanding of his area. But at 29 he's not in his formative years and you can’t expect that to change fundamentally. With Henderson as back-up, plus youth options coming through, I think it would be surprising to see a change in this area. We would then hope that MacGillivray can have a more settled and effective unit in front of him.

Wing-backs. Assuming that Soare and Familio-Castillo disappear and that Leko will not be staying with us, we play with wing-backs but have nobody who before this season would have called themselves such: Matthews, Purrington, Gunter possibly, DJ and CBT. So does JJ consider them to be wing-backs or look to bring in alternatives which clearly are? The (unsuccessful) addition of Familio-Castillo might suggest the latter, the way Blackett-Taylor has performed since returning from injury the former. Personally I quite like the balance between a converted full-back on one side and converted winger on the other, especially if from the bench you have the chance to change to a more offensive/defensive line-up depending on the match situation. On that basis, you can argue that the four we have in situ could suffice, if they all agree to continue as wing-backs, even though Jaiyesimi has been rather ineffective of late as an attacking force; at 23 he still has room for improvement.

Centre-back is probably the area of greatest uncertainty. At present we can, on paper, if all are fit, choose any three from Gunter, Purrington, Clare, Pearce, Lavelle, Inniss, Famewo and Elerewe. And not one of them is a shoo-in for next season. Two key decisions to make.

First, retain or release Inniss. I think we have recovered from the shock of ‘that tackle’ (but will continue to shake our heads for years to come) and congratulations to him on his Player in the Community award. There has to be a medical input into the decision, just an informed opinion (with no guarantees) on whether he is likely to be as unavailable through injury as he has been to date. If that verdict is not favourable, release; if it is favourable, I’d say retain. The bottom line is that at this level Inniss, when fit, would walk into most teams. For us, the extra goals he brings from set pieces would be a massive bonus if we line up without a 20+ goals a season forward. 

Second, and probably dependent on the first, Lavelle. If Inniss is not retained, is Lavelle good enough to base a promotion-winning defence around? That is a decision for people better qualified than me to make as the jury is still out. At 24 in this position his best years should be ahead of him, but without Inniss we are taking a gamble on him to be the focus of central defence. I would suggest that if Inniss goes we need to bring in someone similar.

The other decisions include what role we can expect of Pearce, whether Famewo will be available and should we pursue him, and do we continue with Clare, Purrington, even Gunter as regular centre-back options? Gunter hasn’t featured of late and at 32 he will surely want to be playing regularly if he is to retain his place in the Wales squad. Quite possibly some of these decisions have already been taken, especially over Pearce, Gunter and Famewo.

In summary, I’d suggest the defence needs clarification and strengthening. Frustratingly we have seen this season that when there is the determination from the start to keep a clean sheet, usually when confronted with the ‘better/bigger teams’, we can churn out the desired results. Much the same could have been said about last season (with Pratley). Far too often and too easily we have been easily picked apart by teams finding space between and behind us. If we want a top six spot next season that, quite simply, has to stop, probably from a combination of personnel changes, preparation and attitude (not in the sense that players don’t care, rather that sometimes they appear to me to underestimate the opposition and what is needed to beat them).

In central midfield we currently choose any two from Gilbey, Morgan, Watson, Lee, Forster-Caskey and Fraser to play in front of Dobson, who is a shoo-in. Six is too many but we also need a readily available replacement for Dobson as he will eventually get injured/suspended. Of the current alternatives that would presumably be Watson, but I’m assuming he does not stay with us. Clare or JFK could slot in there (please not Morgan again for that spot) but not as effectively. Now it’s reasonable to suppose that, as the club went out of its way to secure him, Fraser will play an important role next season. I’d also say that a fit Forster-Caskey is well worth his place, which does raise the question of whether he and Fraser can develop a partnership. That really leaves decisions on Gilbey, Morgan and Lee (assuming he is available). I’d say all three offer different options but none of them demands a starting role, so much depends on the target(s) in this area.

Up front, assuming Aneke is fit and available, he and Stockley take two of four spots. Washington is not sure to be with us next season. I hope he is, but if so we need to be realistic. Neither he nor Stockley is a 20+ goals a season striker, so if those two are paired up front we do need more goals from midfield than we have had this campaign – and a good contribution from centre-backs at set pieces (ie Inniss). Either way, with Burstow not likely to be back with us and Leko probably not either, we need a fourth striker. It seems obvious to say the missing piece is a poacher, someone who just enjoys putting the ball in the net. It’s what we looked for in Schwartz and still need. Trouble is, if a target signing is that good he will expect a starting position, which leaves Washington on the bench (whereas ideally it’s the other way around). Problems, problems, problems.

So for me we look likely to start next season with MacGillivray, Inniss, Dobson, Forster-Caskey, Fraser, Blackett-Taylor, and Stockley as the base on which to build, with Lavelle and Aneke. It wouldn’t be the clear-out that some advocate, but bring in four strong new ones (I have no idea who they may be) and retain others from this season and, if the key partnerships in key areas can be formed, it looks to me like a team which we would expect to be in the top six.