Less Than We Deserved Today

This one would I think not have fallen into the category of games we would clearly target to win to reach safety, but also not quite one for which you say anything out of it would be a bonus. We were at home, but not exactly in sparkling form, against opponents going for another promotion, on the back of four wins in their last six. At least we went into the game aware that Blackburn, Portsmouth and Leicester had all already lost, so a win would extend the gap to third-bottom to 10 points.

We didn’t get that win. Or a point. But whereas you might say in the previous two games we got more than we deserved, today we undoubtedly got less. After Southampton and West Brom we could say sure, we were perhaps fortunate, but they didn’t take their chances to make the game safe. Today was a case of biter bit. We had the better chances and didn’t convert them. They scored with a touch of quality on the edge of the area, and when we finally put in a shot beyond their back line their keeper pulled off an excellent save to deny us a point. The positive is that we played much better than of late, but we have nothing to show for it.

With Coady ruled out and concern over Jones after his injury on Tuesday, there were doubts about how Jones the Boss would line us up for this one. In the event there were five changes, two of them enforced as Kaminski picked up a hamstring injury. In came Mannion, with Brooks on the bench, and in front of him would be a back three of Burke (returning from injury and preferred to Sinchenje), Jones (thankfully still available), and Bell, with Ramsay switched to play left-side wing-back, perhaps with their winger in mind, and Clarke on the other flank, Chambers taking a break. Without Coady it was a surprise that Docherty was rested, among the subs. Instead Coventry, Berry and Carey would form an unlikely trio, with Dykes and Campbell up front, Leaburn and Kelman the possible replacements. It did look an odd midfield combination, but hopefully Jones had something in mind when he made the choices.

It was a pretty even, rather dull, opening spell, with Moore causing us problems as usual but us looking brighter than of late and finding some space. Moore just failed to convert a ball in to him, Campbell was unable to make the most of a skied keeper clearance played through to him. Bell had already been down injured when on 12 minutes Burke went down for no obvious reason but clearly in some pain. He was unable to continue, Sinchenje replacing him. Then Ramsay picked up a yellow and it was starting to look like a struggle.

Then on 19 minutes we should have taken the lead. A break saw Campbell move the ball on to Carey and his low ball in found Berry in space in the box. Instead of shooting first time he cut inside to wrongfoot the first defender coming in to challenge, but that only left him up against a second who blocked his effort. A shot first time might well have found the net. Just after Clarke down the right, after Sinchenje won the ball well, found Carey but his low cross was also blocked. And on 27 minutes probably the best chance came our way. Carey was set up. His shot was half-blocked but ran through to Clarke cutting in. It was on his left side, but with the goal seemingly at his mercy he put it wide of the far post.

To underline the point that goals change games Wrexham went up the other end and scored. A ball in from their left was headed away. There seemed no obvious danger, but it was picked up by their guy on the edge of the box. He took a touch inside and hit it well, past Mannion’s despairing dive to his left. A moment of quality which contrasted with our efforts to convert.

That stung us, but the rest of the half was even and tight. Campbell has an excellent run down the left, but his ball into the box couldn’t be converted and at the break we were thinking we’d done well enough but the only effort on target from either side had produced the goal.

Rankin-Costello was brought on at half-time, for Berry, giving the midfield what would seem a more normal shape. And the game continued threw up half-chances for both sides but nothing clear-cut. Rankin-Costello only just failed to get on the end of a good ball in from the right by Clarke, but Wrexham almost extended their lead as a guy’s shot from inside the box was blocked superbly by Ramsay. Carey was shoved over and nothing given, then Coventry played a ball into the channel for Dykes, who sent in a good cross which beat the defender only for Campbell to head over the bar (really you wanted it to be the other way around).

On 70 minutes the game could have turned again. Clarke threw a dummy and advanced into the box, then touched the ball inside, only to then get taken out by a defender’s challenge. Have to see the replays but it looked to me like a good shout for a penalty, almost as if the ref played on as we still had possession rather than focus on the foul. One that VAR would I’m confident have given.

On 73 minutes we started throwing caution to the wind as Leaburn and Kelman came on for Coventry and Bell. That meant I’m not sure what formation, but clearly it would leave us stretched at the back. And shortly after Wrexham broke and had three on two, only for Sinchenje to time his challenge well and intercept the ball across to the spare man. On 80 minutes Leaburn got to a Carey ball to the near post first, but put his effort over the bar. Gillesphey replaced Ramsay and from a corner Sinchenje had the chance for glory but blazed well over.

The real chance to take something from the game came on 89 minutes. A ball into their box was half-cleared and dropped to Carey. We’ve seen it many times before and hopes soared as he sent in the shot, only for their keeper to dive to his right and get enough on it to turn it wide. We had just four minutes of stoppage time and Wrexham saw them out without further alarm.

So, the positives were clear to see. We were more patient, tried to work play through midfield rather than go long at every opportunity, and as a result the game was more enjoyable to watch and we carved out enough chances to have at least avoided defeat. Also, all the other results at the bottom went our way, so in that sense we are in a better position than before today, with the gap unchanged and another round chalked off. But to the fact that we lost has to be added the injury to Burke. A disappointing result, perhaps the one when the rub of the green was against us, but not a disaster.

Riding Our Luck Again, But We Didn't Lose

A ‘must win’ game for them, according to their captain, a ‘mustn’t lose’ game for us. So it was inevitable one side would come off the pitch disappointed. It proved to be them, reflected in their post-match dismissal of head coach Ramsay (after just nine games), but only just. If football is about narrow margins this was a case in point. If their guy’s volley from the edge of the box at the end of stoppage time went just a few inches to the left they win the game (with disappointment but no cause for complaint on our side) and Ramsay still has a job. They would have been three points behind us ahead of a game against Oxford at the weekend.

So just what should we focus on? As far as the game is concerned Jones was honest in his appraisal, accepting that we played poorly and were fortunate to come away with a point, like on Saturday equalising with almost our only serious strike on goal. But in the overall scheme of things after the ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ we didn’t lose and that was the priority. We are in a relegation struggle and avoiding defeat last night might prove to be crucial. Plenty to think about in terms of how we set up for Wrexham on Saturday, but the overriding emotion the day after is one of relief that the outcome wasn’t a good deal worse.

There was a decision to be made for Jones the Boss ahead of the game, regarding team and tactics. The approach to Southampton on Saturday had been simple and predictable: everyone behind the ball when out of possession, defend the box, priority a clean sheet. Against different – and the form book would suggest weaker – opposition, would Jones give the same instructions or look for a more attacking set-up, to go for the win? Not that simple of course, still have to do the basics well and a clean sheet would again be the top priority. But you hoped we wouldn’t fall between two stools.

I think that, as against Portsmouth at The Valley, we did just that. Unsure whether to take the game to them and impose ourselves on them, or to just defend what we had, working hard out of possession but not risking anything, content as long as we had a clean sheet. The result was we encouraged a side low on confidence to take the initiative, dominate possession, and feed attacking players who caused us problems all night, especially their left-winger Johnston, who gave Clarke and Ramsay a very tough night. The approach and mindset only changed once we’d gone behind.

As regards the line-up, Jones the Boss opted for a couple of player swaps from Saturday, with Clarke and Leaburn moving from the bench to start, Sichenje and Campbell taken out of the starting line-up, with Ramsay moving back inside alongside Jones and Bell.

It was all West Brom through the entire first half, in terms of passing, movement, and attacking threat. We had very occasional moments when Dykes and Leaburn weren’t chasing lost causes, notably when Dykes helped set up Carey for a decent effort which was deflected and saved. That was it. Otherwise we struggled even to play the ball around at the back, sooner or later pressured into a hopeful lofted ball forward which was usually mopped up with no problem. On the positive side, we did restrict them to a few actual chances. Johnston served notice on 24 minutes, beating Clarke and delivering a cross that their forward couldn’t make meaningful contact with. And to be honest we were all fearing the worst as Jones the Player went down needing treatment on his knee/ankle on 11 minutes then went down again on 32, this time unable to continue. Sichenje took up his position in the centre of the back three, with no disrespect to him almost by default as Ramsay, Bell or Gillesphey didn’t fit the bill (and the more obvious choice of Burke seems still injured).

There was an incident on 41 minutes which might have changed the game. Ramsay and Johnston went to contest a loose ball and the latter had a rush of blood to the head and jumped in two-footed off the ground. Fortunately for him there is no VAR, Ramsay managed to avoid serious injury (if he’d rolled around clutching his leg the outcome might have been different), and the ref was inadequate all night (wrong decisions and inconsistency with cards). He didn’t even give a foul when it might have been a red card.

It seemed we would at least get to the break on level terms, to regroup and to look to change things in the second half. But in stoppage time a West Brom corner went to the far stick and their defender had a free header from close range. Unfortunately for us he did well to head it down to thwart Kaminski’s efforts to block. Just who carries the can for that one I’ve no idea, but the general feeling was that Jones the Player would not have allowed it to happen.

That goal changed the whole complexion of the game, prompting an early change as Campbell replaced Leaburn (as against Portsmouth), to try to give us greater mobility up front. The difference wasn’t immediately obvious and on 51 minutes we were very nearly two down and probably out for the count. Campbell gave the ball away with a poor layoff, the ball went into our box and their guy under pressure prodded it just wide. Just after that another free header from a corner, Clarke’s frustration showed as he shoved Johnston over for a yellow, and Jones the Boss had had enough.

On 55 minutes on came Coventry and Fevrier, for Coady and Chambers. That meant a switch to a back four (Clarke, Ramsay, Sichenje and Bell), with Campbell and Fevrier operating either side of Dykes in a sort of front three.

These changes did have an impact. Campbell struggled to get into the game but Fevrier added a different dimension as he actually tried to pass the ball to feet and take up space. That helped to push them back a little, although we were also with the new formation more open at the back.

Sichenje picked up a yellow for a badly timed challenge and a West Brom break after we lost the ball in midfield ended with their guy blazing over with others better placed. It still looked more likely that they would add to their lead than us getting back on level terms. But this is football.

On 69 minutes, out of the blue, we equalised. Ramsay advanced with the ball and instead of lofting it forward threaded it through for Dykes. For some reason their centre-backs were moving forward to try to catch him offside and with a very good first touch to take the pace off the ball suddenly Dykes was in the clear. He went for power rather than placement and drilled it through their keeper’s legs.

The game was now up for grabs it seemed, but as the clock ticked down it was still West Brom looking the more likely. On 85 minutes a ball into our box was headed down and it seemed that their guy would finish, only for a desperate and very well timed intervention by Coventry to put it behind – and true to form the ref gave a goal kick. West Brom won a series of corners as we entered four minutes of stoppage time and from one of these, right at the end, we very nearly lost. The corner was half-cleared, back in, half-cleared again, but this time dropped for their guy on the edge of the box. He hit it on the volley and Kaminski, like everyone else, could only watch for the outcome. It went just the right side of the post (from our perspective) and that was that.

For sure we’re disappointed with the performance, as was Jones. After the initial euphoria with the January additions we’ve struggled of late to get the right combinations in key areas. Docherty has gone from out in the cold to regular starter, with Anderson going in the opposite direction and shipped out on loan. You assume Carey has to start, given his goals, but which two from Coady, Coventry, Docherty and Rankin-Costello are optimum is as yet undecided. Similar story up front. Dykes has fitted in from the start and has done all we can ask of him, couple of goals and assists. But is Leaburn, Kelman or Campbell the best partner? Or do we change to play a front three, as last night? These decisions are what Jones and his team get paid to make, not me.

If anyone doubts we are in a relegation struggle, just because we’ve been outside the bottom three all season and still have a points cushion, needs to take a fresh look at the table and form guide. If Norwich beat Sheff Wed tonight, as we assume they will, we drop to 18th. Then if Portsmouth win their game in hand – and their results have picked up significantly of late, despite last night’s welcome defeat – we go to 19th. That would leave just Blackburn (three points behind after an equally welcome defeat last night but also picking up under a new manager), West Brom (six points back but now anticipating a new manager bounce starting with their game against Oxford), and Leicester (who’ve pulled off a couple of unlikely draws and are appealing against their six-points deduction). You can’t see any of the teams above us being dragged back into it.

So let’s not pretend our position is in any way comfortable and accept that now is not the time for carping about how ugly our style of play is. The only question is whether it will prove effective. I’m more concerned that both West Brom and Portsmouth recently outfought us in key areas. Early in the season we were progressively dominating teams, wearing them down. Perhaps other teams just wised up to us. Whatever, we cannot (IMO) last for much longer carrying no material threat to the opposition’s goal. We’ve come away with a couple of fortunate points. That luck won’t last, we have to play better, which means Jones sorting out the combinations and the mindset going into games. We also have to hope Jones the Player is not ruled out for long.

As Hard-Earned A Point As They Come

Fair to say we went into this one a good deal less optimistic than on Tuesday, in part because of Tuesday but with nobody needing reminding of the humiliation at the hands of Southampton at The Valley. Add in the fact that they had won four of their last five and have moved from surprising relegation candidates when we last played them to play-off contenders (rather the reverse for us), with their fans no doubt licking their lips at the prospect of adding to Jones’ problems, and I like most I suspect felt that anything from the game would be a bonus. Given that, we were perhaps looking for reason to believe that the resolve and determination remained intact for more important challenges to come.

But always at the back of your mind, this is football, nothing is written. And with a disciplined defensive display and a delightful equaliser we came away with a very valuable point, one that for the majority of the game had looked unlikely. Ultimately they perhaps took the game too casually when it came to turning the ample possession we afforded them into real chances, with so many of their 23 attempts on goal blocked. By contrast, when Carey shaped up to shoot his effort evaded two defenders and their keeper, who got a hand to it but couldn’t keep it out. Sometimes you do make your own luck.

The team showed two changes from Tuesday night, one a surprise the other less so. Sichenje came into the starting line-up, in a back three with Jones and Bell, with Ramsay moving to right-side wing-back and Clarke having a rest. Whether that was in response to the opposition, a result of what he’d seen on the training ground, or some other reason only Jones would know. Up front Campbell came in for Leaburn, who moved to the bench, to start alongside Dykes. Otherwise it was unchanged, with Docherty and Coady retained together in midfield. No doubt they and some others, including Kaminski, went out with a point to prove after Tuesday night.

The pattern for the game was apparent from the start. Our job was to get behind the ball and defend the box in numbers. Stay in the game and perhaps look to be more ambitious in the closing stages. It meant conceding possession until the final third, with Dykes and Campbell left to cause whatever problems they could with little supply or support.

And we did start rather shakily. Sichenje conceded a couple of early free kicks (he did settle down to have a fine debut, but you can see why he picks up a fair share of cards), Ramsay made an error to nearly let them in, and it took a Jones clearance off the line to keep it all square. We had the occasional moment, including on 19 minutes when Jones found Carey well and he moved it on to Chambers, only for his dinked cross to be gathered by their keeper, and others involving finding Campbell in space. But they were few and far between. Kaminski saved a shot from a narrow angle, while a curler from a set piece hit the bar, then another shot from inside the box went well over. A Southampton corner was flicked on at the near post and Bree couldn’t quite rise high enough to keep his header under the bar.

No matter, at the break we were content, so far job done. That Southampton had 74% possession mattered little, none of their 10 attempts on goal (five on target) had registered. Jones will have been the happier of the two managers, but still a long way to go, with Southampton no doubt feeling that more of the same and sooner or later they would score.

We didn’t expect that goal to come so quickly after the break, within just a couple of minutes. And it didn’t seem like one of their moments of danger. A ball in from their left was going behind their forward. But fair play to him, he managed to get his head around it and glance a header with sufficient power and placed beyond Kaminski into the net. A goal I think you just hold up your hands and say well done.

With the goal coming so early there was no suggestion of a change from us in response. The greater goal in the following period was not to concede another. And although their tails were up, crucially we managed to do that. We did get caught out by a swift goalkeeper throw out to their winger, with the move ending strangely as Bell slipped over in the box, blocking the path for the forward. Equally, we were perhaps hard done by as Dykes took advantage of a defensive error and fired home, only to be pulled up for using his hand to control the ball. Looked a questionable decision, might on another day have got away with it.

After a succession of Southampton corners, on 65 minutes Jones made a significant change, with Leaburn coming on to replace Campbell. He’d done well enough, caused them some problems, but we needed to add more of a physical presence up front. The effect was felt quickly, with us playing further up the pitch, but it was still something of a surprise that we were very quickly level. Bell found Docherty and he cut across the box and laid the ball on for Carey. He took a touch and it looked likely (to me at least) that his effort would be charged down. But it wasn’t, and despite their keeper’s fingertips it found the far corner of the net.

Still 25+ minutes left to hold out. Southampton responded with a triple substitution but if anything the game became more even, at least until the closing minutes. It also became more fractious, with a poor tackle on Leaburn and later a coming together shall we say of their guy and Coady, which produced accusations of a headbut by the former. The ref, at rather a loss what to do, gave them both a yellow.

On 83 minutes Kelman and Coventry replaced Dykes and Coventry, then Sichenje went down with cramp and was replaced by Clarke, Ramsay moving back inside. News of 10 additional minutes as an unpleasant surprise and during that time it was all backs to the wall and a case of heading or hoofing anything away and blocking more shots. That we managed to do and there was no doubt who was celebrating at the final whistle.

Just how important the point might prove nobody can say as yet. For now it keeps us with a gap to the relegation zone, notionally seven points but with Blackburn and Portsmouth rapidly making up the ground and Leicester appealing against their six-point deduction meaning the position is less comfortable than it might appear. It also sets everything up for yet another massive game on Tuesday night at West Brom. We failed to beat Blackburn when they were on their uppers, here would seem to be another chance to really put distance between us and at least one of those below us. Win and the immediate pressure is eased significantly. May it be so.

Back In The Merde After Dispiriting Defeat

Stoke was a massive three points. Last night was if anything be more important. Win again and we could just about lay serious claim to mid-table. Lose and suddenly Portsmouth would be just three behind us with a game in hand, Blackburn four with a new manager bounce, leaving otherwise just West Brom and Leicester, both in dire form but – like Southampton, Sheff Utd and Norwich before them – not teams you anticipated being in a relegation scrap and quite likely to pull themselves together when they acknowledge the reality of their situation. Comfortable it most certainly would not be.

Putting temporarily to one side the merited goodwill they and their supporters generated with their behaviour over the sad demise of Headphones Norm, no doubt we owed Portsmouth one for the outcome at their place over New Year – even if we had no-one to blame but ourselves. And although their home form is reasonable, Portsmouth pre-match stood above only Sheff Wed in the away performance table, with just two wins and five draws in 14 games, scoring only nine goals in the process, while also carrying a lengthy injury list (nice for it not to be us for a change) but they like us bolstered by January additions. So you felt before that game that a good, committed performance by us, plus the rub of the green, might be enough for us to secure the points. A draw wouldn’t be the end of the world, given where it would leave them, but a win would be so, so much better. So close it seemed - but as it turned out so far away.

We were outmuscled and outfought pretty much from start (leaving aside the first minute) to finish. You give credit to Portsmouth for coming with a gameplan which worked, playing decent football to create space and to feed a front line which we never managed to dominate, while ensuring our wing-backs were pressed back, leaving the front two and Carey in support to feed off scraps. When we play like that – you may say when the opposition makes us play like that - we look a poor team, the opposition dominating possession, us unable to do anything with the ball when we get it (a few passes across the back followed by the inevitable long ball forward). You could feel the frustration both on and off the pitch, one factor behind the steady accumulation of yellow cards.

The only saving grace from our perspective was the nature of their goals and the inevitable ‘if onlys’. We weren’t battered (like against Southampton or Sheff Utd before their red cards), Portsmouth actually created few chances. Their goals came curtesy of two long-range strikes, tricky ones but both of which Kaminski should have kept out, and a questionable penalty (I don’t agree the decision was a mistake, but it was harsh). Chasing the game against opposition comfortable on the ball and strong enough to hold off challenges was dispiriting. How different the game could have been if we had taken the lead in the first minute. The only positive to be taken from the game was the contribution of Fevrier, so far rather the forgotten man of the transfer window.

As for the details, with no sign yet of Antonio to take the final available squad place, the team was expected to be largely unchanged, but it seemed that Godden picked up a hamstring injury and as one exited left another returned, with Leaburn deemed fit again after his shoulder injury and going straight into the starting XI. Otherwise it was as you were, including the subs.

You might say with hindsight that the game turned on the first minute. An ordinary ball forward was helped on by Leaburn, then eluded Dykes and his marker, to find Clarke inside the box with only the keeper to beat. His effort was saved by their keeper’s legs, but really he should have been given no chance. Nothing wrong with scoring in the first minute but the chance went begging and the night would turn only for the worse after that.

It was an open and after our opportunity a pretty even opening period, with our basic and direct approach looking capable of delivering more opportunities against what seemed fragile opponents, even though they were playing all the football. But as the game progressed we became less effective and they grew in confidence. Before 20 minutes were up both Clarke (kicking the ball away) and Chambers (late challenge) had seen yellow. And after 21 minutes we were behind.

They advanced into our half and the ball was played square to their right back. He was allowed to progress unchallenged, but was still a fair way out when he hit a crisp, swerving effort, one which deceived Kaminski, who failed to get enough of his body behind it. A little like Carey’s effort against West Brom, the keeper ended up looking rather silly. Just an error, no accounting for it.

The trouble is we reacted poorly to going behind, appearing rattled. Portsmouth created havoc in our box with a corner, then the ball was driven across the face of goal without getting the necessary touch. And after a yellow for Leaburn (hand in the face in an arial challenge) things went from bad to worse on 32 minutes. On their right side again, the guy brought the ball forward and Bell backed up, moving into the box. The cross was hit from close range. The way I saw the incident was that Bell instinctively tried to move his arm out of the way, but failed and as the ball made contact it could appear that his arm was in an unnatural position. So a harsh call but not an obvious error (IMO). I suspect that if Bell had kept his arms by his side the ball would have hit the arm but no penalty would have been given. Kaminski (who added to the yellow card total with his protest) dived to his right and the ball was sent in down the middle.

Now it would be the proverbial mountain to climb. And we failed to get one back before the break, which might have changed the mood in the dressing room. Instead there was another yellow, for Jones (pulling their guy back). The half-time stats showed we had just 38% possession, managing five attempts on goal (two on target) against nine (five) for them.

Jones the Boss registered his dissatisfaction at half time with three substitutions. On came Campbell, Coventry and Fevrier, replacing Leaburn (who had looked out of sorts and rather rusty), Coady (something had to be done to try and win some control in midfield) and Clarke. This also involved a change in formation, to a back four (Ramsay, Jones, Bell and Chambers), two in front of the defence (Coventry and Docherty), and three (Campbell, Carey and Fevrier) operating behind Dykes.

Obviously we needed to go for it from the off, to get one back and install belief. We didn’t manage that, not least as it seemed to me we didn’t play to the strengths of the changed formation. Balls were still sent in the air for Dykes to contest, but if he was able to flick it on it was to nobody, with Campbell and Fevrier wanting the ball to their feet and Carey not throwing the dice to get beyond Dykes. Surely the instruction should have been to play balls forward that Dykes might be able to hold up, to then bring the others into play. There was no sign of that.

Before we worked it out, and after another yellow, for Coventry (late challenge), the game was done and dusted. Same guy, this time he read a situation and collected the ball, moved forward and tried his luck from distance again. People may say it was a wonder-strike, it did for sure move around a fair bit. But ultimately Kaminski was beaten at his near post by a shot from distance, which he can’t be happy about.

We did manage to pull one back, on 63 minutes. A Carey long throw was nodded on by Dykes and Fevrier met it sweetly on the volley to tuck it into the corner of the net. Still around 30 minutes to play, could we really get something out of the game?

For a short while it seemed possible, with Campbell causing problems down our left side. But nothing materialised and as the clock ticked down Portsmouth understandably regained their confidence and to be honest saw out the game with little trouble. Carey picked up a yellow (late challenge), in a final, desperate throw of the dice Jones sent on Kelman and Berry for Chambers and Docherty, which had the unfortunate effect of Campbell moving to wide-right. Campbell blazed over in stoppage time but by then the game was up.

We all know the impact the defeat has, with a tough trip to Southampton coming up next on Saturday, then away at West Brom in midweek, February concluding with a home game against Wrexham. Whether Jones concludes that last night was just one to be forgotten, or opts to shake up the pack, I’ve no idea. The latter wouldn’t in any event amount to a change of approach or formation. We are very much the underdogs for Southampton at least and it really is time now to pull out an unexpected result. We are back in if not the merde something close to it.

Another Massive Three Points Won

Having missed the QPR game (weekend trip back to the UK to see friends which left me with a hangover and a couple of busted ribs) but been more than mildly encouraged by comments from others and the highlights, and given the other results in the interim, the permutations for last night’s game were simple enough: win and we put seven points between us and the drop zone, moving back alongside Norwich and Sheff Utd, teams that nobody expects to get relegated. Of course the reverse also applied: lose and we are back looking over our shoulders, hanging on the results for Portsmouth and Blackburn on Saturday ahead of our clash with the former on Tuesday night. With our opponents without a win in five games and depleted by injuries, but still harbouring play-off ambitions, nobody could call the outcome with any confidence.

Well, we got that massive win. It wasn’t pretty, a tight game in which the first goal if it came would probably be the winner, one that could have gone either way. We dominated the opening spell and had good chances to take the lead, but once Stoke got into the game their passing and movement carried danger and they had a couple of first-half opportunities, both of which fell to Rak-Sakyi. And for much of the second half they looked the more likely to nick one, although from set pieces especially we carried a threat too. Then it was one mistake capitalised on and we took the points. Deserved/not deserved? Doesn’t come into it. We scored, they didn’t. And we needed those points more than them.

Nobody would have been surprised or upset if Jones went with the same team/squad as for the QPR game, but that all hinged on any injuries or tired legs in need of a rest. In the event he opted for just one change, with Godden replacing Kelman up front for his first start of the season.

The opening 15 minutes was all us. Clarke timed his run well to meet Carey’s corner but his header crashed against the underside of the bar and out. A lofted ball forward found Dykes between defenders and able to move towards goal. He chipped the keeper but it seemed to be weighted as one to run on to rather than with enough power to find the net and he was beaten to it by two defenders. Another corner found Jones at the far post, but with the ball at an awkward height he opted to hit it on the volley and sent it just wide. And another cross, this time from right to left, found Ramsay but his header was too close to their keeper.

Four passable chances to take the lead. We were almost running riot. But we failed to actually score and the rest of the game would be markedly different. As if to drive home the point the next opportunity was crafted by Stoke. A one-two outside our box and Jones was for once caught out not tracking/staying goalside of Rak-Sakyi. The ball was slid into his path, Jones was unable to get to the ball (his only option would have been to bundle Rak-Sakyi over and face the consequences, which he wisely opted not to do). But Rak-Sakyi put just a little too much on the shot over Kaminski and it clipped the crossbar.

The rest of the first half was nip and tuck. Their triangles and movement contrasting with our more basic approach – which is no criticism, you play to your strengths. The only further chance of note came late on when Rak-Sakyi was able to advance into our box. Bell showed him the outside and he took that, then sent his shot over the bar.

The stats at the break showed we had only 38% possession but 10 attempts on goal, two on target, against two and zero for them. Pretty much summed things up. Both managers were probably fairly content and urging more of the same, only this time put the ball in the net.

We nearly did that early in the second half. Another ball over the top found Godden with a yard of space. He was still a fair way out, on the right side, but tried to lob their keeper. It may well have gone in had it not taken a slight deflection off their defender and ended up clearing the bar for a corner – another which was to see the ref trying in vain to limit the number of offences being committed by both teams.

On 60 minutes Campbell came off the bench to replace Godden, to operate as the second striker. It offered a different threat, one which with hindsight worked out rather well. Stoke were still a danger, but we usually had the bodies back to prevent anything clear-cut, while the dangerous, driven low crosses from their left which flashed across our goal failed to get the touch they needed (and their manager after the game criticised the inability of their strikers to make the effort to be in position to score from them).

On 69 minutes TC provided his trademark cut inside from the left and shot, this one well saved by their keeper. And after more changes by Stoke to provide fresh legs, just when all the talk was about us running out of gas as against QPR, on 80 minutes the goal came. Kaminski’s kick out was touched on well by Dykes, but there still seemed little danger until their centre-back made a pig’s ear of an interception/clearance. Campbell was through on goal. His first touched seemed to be heavy and I thought their keeper would smother it, but TC still managed to get the first touch to move it around the keeper, then tucked it into an empty net.

On 83 minutes we made our second and final change, Coventry coming on for Carey with the obvious intention of tightening things up and holding what we now had. And there was really only one moment of alarm, as a tired Ramsay was done like the proverbial kipper but their guy failed to make the most of the space created. Four minutes of stoppage time were negotiated and cue celebrations.

It is hard to overestimate the importance of the three points won (our first win since before Xmas which wasn’t assisted by one or more red cards). On Saturday we can relax and hope that Sheff Utd trounce Portsmouth and QPR see off Blackburn – as despite the travails of Leicester and West Brom those two surely still have to be seen as the most likely to take the third relegation place (I know Oxford aren’t done yet) – and prepare for Tuesday night, for what remains a real six-pointer at The Valley against Portsmouth. We obviously owe them one for that ridiculous winner at their place (that point dropped and the extra two for them, plus our failure to beat Blackburn from two up still stick in the throat). That said, the reaction of Portsmouth and their fans to the death of Headphones Norm merits nothing but praise and respect. For that alone I hope they avoid the drop – just not at our expense please.