Forward Conumdrums And Options

TC’s goal yesterday and Leaburn’s bad miss rather levelled things up for our forwards, in what I imagine is a very strange fashion. Now 20 games into the league campaign, and in pretty much all of them we’ve been playing two up top, and each of the forwards – Leaburn, Olaofe, Campbell and Kelman – have registered one goal apiece, while the fifth, Godden, has yet to make it on the pitch. We’ve had plenty of seasons before when our leading goalscorer has been in single figures, and we do have Carey and Knibbs scoring, but I doubt we've had one when all of the forwards were stuck on one goal with nearly half the campaign over.

There are, for sure, mitigating factors. First and foremost, we don’t play in a freeflowing style that results in chances aplenty for the forwards. Coventry we are not, at the moment. So while Leaburn’s miss was a bad one, it’s not the case that the forwards have been wasting glorious opportunities (I’d suggest that a few one on ones not converted by Olaofe in particular are the exception). Most of the time they are feeding off scraps against tough, seasoned defenders. But even compared with last season we are missing key strengths. Godden is our best natural finisher, the best at sniffing an opportunity and getting in the right place to benefit. Kelman improved after a sticky start, scored his first, then got injured and has not been available since. Last season, when we needed a battering ram to change games, we had (sometimes) Aneke. We know why we didn’t retain him (and so far one goal in 10 games for Shrewsbury doesn’t look like a great return), just that neither Leaburn nor Olaofe can match his physical presence when that's needed for a final 20 minutes or so.

For all of the strikers we’ve had available this season the Championship marks a step up for them. And it’s fair to say that they have all struggled to have a significant impact, especially as without Godden and Kelman the opportunities for a rest/rotation have been very limited – and as Jones commented he’s been asking Campbell to play second forward, left-side wing-back, right winger. When Jones and his team strengthened the squad over the summer, in goal they brought in Kaminski, aged 33 and well versed in playing in the Championship. In defence they added Burke and Bell, later Bree and now Roussillon, all experienced players for whom the Championship doesn’t mark a step up. In midfield Rankin-Costello came in, while Docherty and Berry played for many years at this level. We did add Carey, Knibbs and Apter, for whom it is a step up. Up front, we did good business bringing in Kelman and Olaofe, but with Godden not available nobody playing for us up front has experience of the Championship. Leaburn is still learning how to lead the line at Championship level (and wasn’t a regular starter last season), Campbell how to adjust facing tougher opponents than last season.

So given all this it is perhaps not surprising that we have struggled in the forwards department. The question is what, if anything, to do about it.

First option as always is to do nothing. If Godden and Kelman are about to return, we will be back to having numbers and options. Second, if the agreements allow, Kanu and/or Mbick could be called back from loan. Kanu has notched nine goals in 16 appearances for Walsall, picking up the EFL Young Player of the Month award in September, on Saturday scoring again in a game against Aneke’s Shrewsbury. Mbick has so far scored five in 14 for Colchester. But they are on loan as part of their development process, to return to us as better players; and there would be a strong chance that moving up from League Two to the Championship would be challenging for them.

Third, we bring in one or two more. Where from? We know Jones doesn’t like loan players, but there’s a time and a place. Drafting in a promising youngster from a Premiership side surely has to be considered, since shelling out significant amounts in January for a forward is normally considered bad business.

I’m not paid to come up with the answers, but bottom line is we need more than we currently have, not least to help those being called on to play game in, game out. Either Godden and Kelman are back available, or Kanu or Mbick brought back, or we sign one or two, either on loan or permanent. If it is the last option, surely we will be looking for someone with either Championship experience or currently with a Premiership side.

Hard-Earned Point More Than Welcome

Went into this one with pretty much the same priorities as against Middlesbrough: first and foremost, stop the rot, the run of defeats, keep a clean sheet, a draw acceptable in the circumstances, but a win would be so welcome. We emerged with a point, thanks to a big second-half effort and a first for the season for Campbell. At half-time we would have been delighted with that, having been by some way second-best (even though we had the best chance of the game to that point). And post-match it still feels like a very decent outcome, something to build on.

Once again we waited for the team news in the hope that somebody would be back available – and again we were disappointed on that front. But there were changes from Tuesday night, with Anderson, Fullah and Olaofe all starting, with Knibbs, Berry and Campbell dropped to the bench. The indication from the club site was that it would be a back five, with Ramsay, Jones and Gillesphey flanked by Fullah and Bree. Seemed odd that Roussillion didn’t get the nod, but we’ve no idea how he is shaping up. It would be Coventry, Anderson and Carey in midfield, with Docherty not getting back in and Carey left to exploit the more forward position (as opposed to the strange choice for Middlesbrough to have him, Knibbs and Berry in the team), while we would have both Leaburn and Olaofe up front, meaning that Campbell would be the only possible change up front.

Whether Campbell was being rested, given a break in light of a fair bit of criticism, or Jones saw something to exploit in the Birmingham line-up wasn’t clear. It did mean a very lopsided bench with very little in the way of defensive or forward cover but an abundance of midfielders, but with the injuries we have that was at least understandable.

Birmingham did give us a lesson in the first-half, although unlike Southampton and Stoke didn’t complete the task. In fact having taken the lead just before 30 minutes were up they seemed to ease up a gear and we did come more into it. In that first 30 minutes Stansfield and Gray looked capable of scoring at any point. Birmingham dealt easily enough with our press and moved the ball quickly; by contrast we were ponderous when we did have the ball and caused them no problems, usually forced into giving the ball away or hitting hopeful balls forward, with Leaburn and Olaofe getting no change out of their centre-backs.

On 22 minutes Gray, who’d already had a shot or two blocked, cut inside and sent in another effort, this one coming back off the post with Kaminski a spectator. They had looked dangerous from the start with corners and it was from a set piece that we went behind. Anderson gave away a free kick on their right. It was sent into the box, and one of their centre-backs rose highest and sent it back across Kaminski and into the far corner. It was an excellent header, but a poor goal from our perspective, with the guy simply getting in between Gillesphey and Ramsay, who failed to get off the ground or make an effective challenge.

From that platform you felt that Birmingham might go on and get a second to all but kill off the game. Instead they seemed to take a breather and the game became more even. And out of nowhere we really should have levelled it. They mishit a pass across their defence and Olaofe was able to get to the ball first, then deliver a low ball into the box. With Birmingham having been pushing up Leaburn was on his own and simply had to score. Instead, with their keeper applying a bit of pressure, he put it well over the bar. We had been given the opportunity but didn’t take it.

Birmingham did raise it again just before the break and we were hanging on rather, probably aware that a second then would be, as at Coventry, a real body blow. We did avoid conceding again. The stats at the break reflected the balance of play in that they had 61% possession and had 17 attempts on goal, three on target, against three and zero for us. Just that one of our three should have gone into the net.

The second half was a more even affair, as by hook or by crook we managed to make it messy, preventing Birmingham from asserting dominance again. And they made the mistake of upsetting Olaofe. On 54 minutes Fullah – who put in a good shift as wing-back – put in a poor cross which their keeper gathered easily. Olaofe challenged rather clumsily and ended up on the ground, where the keeper and a defender tried to keep him. When Olaofe got to his feet he was clearly upset, but their keeper disgraced himself by going down as if poleaxed. It was a clear attempt to get a red card, which fortunately the ref saw through and gave him a yellow as well as Olaofe.

On 63 minutes Jones made a couple of changes, with Campbell coming on for Fullah and Rankin-Costello for Coventry. And having been on the pitch all season and not scoring, within three minutes of coming on TC had pulled us level. Olaofe, still chomping at the bit, had the ball on our right and nutmegged his opponent, getting to the byline. His low cross was deflected by the keeper and sat up nicely for Campbell, who had time to wait for it to come down before putting it away. He was in the right place at the right time.

It was interesting to see how Birmingham would respond, now having to go out and win the game again. And to be fair they did put us under the cosh for most of the rest of the game. On 70 minutes Gray evaded Bree and went on another run through our defence, hit another curler, but this one came back off the bar with Kaminski beaten.

Docherty replaced Carey, a fair indication that we were more intent on holding what we had, and bodies were now being put on the line. The game got heated, with Docherty taken out late by a bad challenge, followed quickly by Stansfield getting to a ball out of defence first and moving it down the line, past Anderson. Anderson did what he needed to do and pulled him down. The Birmingham fans howled for a red (we did have cover) while Olaofe came over and congratulated Anderson on a job well done. We did have moments, especially when Rankin-Costello went past three on the left but played a poor ball inside. But it was pretty much all them. Late on Olaofe and Anderson were both spent and Knibbs and Laqeretabua replaced them.

Birmingham’s final opportunity came just before the end of normal time as Knibbs pulled back one of theirs a little outside the box. It was there for Gray to hit another curler. This time Kaminski read it and was able to turn it around for a corner. We saw out six minutes of stoppage time.

It is something to build on. There was character and effort on display from all and most important we ended the run of defeats. Jones must feel some relief tonight (especially as his namesake seemed OK after an early injury scare, heaven only knows what would have happened had he had to leave the field). Whether the performance and point prove to be a turning point we can’t say as yet. But there was enough on display to suggest that it may well be.

Disappointing Night On The Pitch

I can’t claim the honour to have known Norman Barker, only to have noticed him and been aware of his presence at games at The Valley and elsewhere. So full and proper tributes to him should come from others. That said, it is truly something that an individual can elicit universal acclaim and respect, not just from fellow Addicks. I hope that the genuine warmth and appreciation of him that has been expressed in various forums since Saturday provides some comfort for his family and friends. To that we should add thanks to the Middlesbrough fans last night for fully respecting his tribute. RIP Norman.

Facing the team second in the league, albeit at home, on the back of a run of four consecutive defeats, at least two of which were routs, and with none of the players out injured returning was always going to be a tough task. With the Portsmouth game taken out of the equation, we went into it with the primary task of not losing, keeping a clean sheet. Middlesbrough may have been sitting second in the table, but a record of 28 goals in 19 games doesn’t point to an especially potent attack, their strength being at the other end, where they’d conceded just 20. So on paper it pointed to a cagey affair.

In the event we were well beaten by a better side. The first half wasn’t a repeat of Southampton, but without Kaminski it might have been. We registered 28% possession and were almost entirely unable to do anything with the ball in the brief periods we had it, the foul on Berry in the box which should have resulted in a penalty the major exception. Our only complaints about being two down at the break were the nature of their goals, reflecting errors on our part, and the fact that we almost got back into the dressing room only losing by one, which might have made it a different game.

The second half was a different story, but only to the extent that we made a fight of it having made three changes (a manager cannot really talk about bringing on ‘game changers’ when he makes a triple substitution to start the second half, rather it is a reflection of the game plan having not worked), while Middlesbrough played within themselves, content with what they had. We pulled one back late on and might, just might, have equalised, but that would have been a truly great – and unmerited - escape.  

The team was always going to be of some interest, whether Jones would stick with the team/squad he chose for Portsmouth, whether different opposition merited adjustment, and whether the extra few days might be sufficient for Bell and one or two others to be back available (they were not). I’ll make no bones about it, the team which took the pitch on Saturday was not one I would have chosen, but that’s neither here nor there. Jones is paid to make the calls, can assess what things look like on the training ground, and has forgotten more about football than I will ever know.

Jones did indeed make changes from Saturday. In came Knibbs, Berry and Leaburn for Hernandez (apparently out with a hamstring injury), Anderson (a bit tough to get dropped after getting a first start in the Championship and playing 12 minutes), and Olaofe. It meant a flat back four – of Bree, Jones, Gillesphey and Ramsay – and a four-man midfield – Coventry, Knibbs, Carey and Berry – and two up front – Leaburn and Campbell. On the bench Gough returned, there was a spot for Roussillon, both bolstering the defensive options, with Anderson, Rankin-Costello and Docherty, plus Olaofe, Apter and Fullah also available. My first thought was that we might be a little short of height (and muscle), not least for set pieces, perhaps that Roussillon might have started at left-back, with an out-of-position Ramsay coming on during the game, and that having all three of Knibbs, Carey and Berry – players which might normally be considered to be rivals for the more advanced midfield slot – might leave us vulnerable. But it wasn’t as if we were blessed with options.

Whatever the thinking was behind the team selection, it didn’t work. Middlesbrough dominated from the start, the first of Kaminski’s excellent saves coming in the third minute (to turn a powerful shot over the bar), the second in the seventh. We did have a couple of moments in between, with a cross not quite finding Carey and then Carey putting in a shot well struck but too close to the keeper (and no West Brom error this time). Otherwise it was all them.

With the plan not working out, just before the half hour we had a tactical Kaminski injury and sidelines discussion that resulted in a switch to a back five, with Campbell the left-side wing back, Ramsay moved back over to the right side of a central three, and Berry pushed further forward to operate alongside Leaburn. But a few minutes later we were behind.

On 32 minutes Carey was robbed of the ball and Middlesbrough sprang forward, leading to a shot saved by Kaminski. We didn’t learn the lesson as a minute later he was again dispossessed by a high press. This time the ball went to the right side, from there a low cross and a guy in space to casually score. For all their good play, the goal came from our error, albeit one forced by their press.

Curiously, a couple of minutes later we might have been back level. A ball forward in the air was flicked on for Berry to run onto inside their box. In real time it looked soft as their defender challenged and Berry went down, you can understand why the officials didn’t give it. But the replays were clear. Contact resulting in Berry not being able to get to the ball, should have been a penalty.

On 40 minutes Campbell received the ball wide left and skinned his first opponent, going on to put in a cross put behind for a corner. That corner resulted in a goalmouth scramble. But as we moved towards the end of stoppage time, with thoughts about how to improve in the second half, the ball went across their box to our left side. Campbell put in a weak challenge for what looked like a 50-50, their defender being by far the more determined. That left a good deal of space for him to run into, good movement ahead of him ended with their guy firing home from a tight angle. At the time it felt like a real body blow.

These details might give the impression that the game was fairly evenly balanced. They leave out long periods when we were chasing shadows and giving the ball away cheaply when we did get it. The goals may have been the result of errors, but nobody could deny that 0-2 at the break was a fair reflection of the game.

Jones decided to take off Carey, Knibbs and – rather more surprisingly (perhaps related to the yellow card situation?) – Coventry, bringing on Docherty, Anderson and Fullah. The changes pointed to greater resolution in midfield and begged the question why we had started with three number 10s. The fact that they failed to gel raised an obvious question, on what grounds did we expect them to?

We did improve after the break, the game becoming a scrappy but competitive affair. Middlesbrough gave every impression of feeling they had done enough, that they were quite likely to extend their lead but would focus on keeping things tight, which their defensive record indicates they are good at. We had flashes, the occasional moment, but it was still Kaminski making the saves.

On 66 minutes Olaofe was brought on for Berry, to provide greater muscle and height up front. And on 77 minutes it was Apter for Bree, that change reflecting the fact that we had a game to chase. And it paid off quickly as on 80 minutes Apter sent in a teasing cross from the right which might have been put in by Leaburn but ended up as an own goal.

We now had 10 minutes plus to pull something out of the bag. And we did fashion one more chance, with a long ball forward missed by Leaburn and his marker and Olaofe running in behind. It wasn’t easy but under pressure he shot over. And with Middlesbrough quite adept at running down the clock that proved to be it.

Perhaps the worst thing about last night was that there might be signs that we – fans and players – are becoming too accustomed to losing. Five on the spin, with a goal difference of four for and 14 against, it hard to argue against. We know the squad is stretched thin, that we badly miss Edwards, Burke, Bell, Godden and Kelman; and we know we’ve played very good teams. What (IMO) hasn’t helped has been some questionable – to the extent that in hindsight they haven’t worked – team selections. The impression given was that Hernandez would have started last night if he was fit, despite him not being in any way suited to a wing-back role, and Jones chose a midfield that was short on bite. That only changed when Anderson and Docherty were brought on.

Jones will have to come up with another plan for Saturday at Birmingham. Here too it surely has to be based on prioritising keeping a clean sheet. Hopefully more players will be available and increase the options, but whether or not we have to be dogged and resolute and build from that.

Possible Options For Saturday

I don’t often get involved in anything more than a theoretical (liquid) debate with fellow Addicks over team selection/formation, for the very good reasons that we have no idea what has been happening on the training ground, who is struggling/raring to go, or what Jones the Boss’ masterplan for the game might be. Also, those making the decisions are by a distance better qualified to do so than any of us. But there’s always the exception that proves the rule.

Ahead of the Coventry game we were taking comfort from the fact that Bell had been in the squad for Stoke and could be back, and that new signing Roussillon might go straight into the squad to help cover the left side of defence. Those hopes have been dashed by Bell’s early departure (whether or not he was brought back too soon is irrelevant) and assumed fresh absence for a while now, while Jones has been talking in terms of giving Roussillon a run-out with the U21s and allowed time to get up to speed. So for the purposes of Portsmouth on Saturday you have to assume neither will feature. Whether any of Burke, Kelman or Godden will be available is an open question, presumably the much-missed Edwards is still some way off.

I’m very much in the camp that there is no perfect formation in football, each comes with strengths and weaknesses. Sure, there’s an advantage in playing the same system regularly as the players become accustomed to it. But that can be overridden by ‘needs must’ and the desire to get the best out of the resources available to you at the time. Last season we only started to fire when Small was given a role as a wing-back on his ‘wrong side’ and Godden was given a regular start. We had started the season with Mitchell(A) as the lynchpin in defence and with expectations that expensive new signing Ahadme would lead the attack. Things change.

So what do we know ahead of Saturday? First, we have one natural wing-back available (Bree), nobody on the left other than square pegs. Second, we are short of defenders period, with only Jones, Ramsay and Gillesphey assumed to be available for three places in a back five, with Gough having been in the squad but not called upon yet. Third, we are short of outright forwards, with Leaburn and Olaofe alternating at present, Campbell played as a second forward but yet to score this season. Fourth, we have an abundance of options in midfield: Docherty, Coventry, Carey, Knibbs, Berry, Anderson, Fullah, Rankin-Costello, Apter and Hernandez. Whether any of Gough, Laqeretabua, Enslin, Rylah or other youngsters should be added to the options I don’t know. Fifth, using Apter, Campbell or Hernandez in wing-back roles has to go down as a failed experiment not to be repeated unless there really is no other option.

Then what do we know about what we are up against? Portsmouth’s recent record is poor, with just one win and a draw in the last six (actually the same as us in that respect, although we’ve rattled off four defeats in a row). They’ve only scored 15 goals in 18 games, Their formation and style of play I can only guess at from highlights and looking at line-ups, but they seem to opt for one up front supported by three behind – something that surely must ring some alarm bells after Southampton came to us with a similar set-up and ran us ragged with the centre-forward dropping deep and well-timed runs from those around him.

To me, it all points to us switching to a back four. If we started with Ramsay as left-back, Jones and Gillesphey in the centre, and Bree on the right, we are in my head at least utilising what we have. Up front, to me it looks like a good option to play a front three, with two either side of either Leaburn or Olaofe. We have the players in Campbell, Apter and Fullah. We employed the set-up with Rak-Sakyi and with Blackett-Taylor. And let’s face it, our forwards haven’t been hitting the net with any regularity when operating a front two (even if Campbell does his best work out wide).

If it’s a 4-3-3 that still leaves places for three central midfielders, most probably Coventry, Docherty and Carey, with Knibbs, Berry, Rankin-Costello and Anderson available. Their brief would surely be to protect the defence from midfield runners and to play the ball out when under pressure down the channels for the two widish forwards to get on the end of (rather than in the air down the centre, meat and drink for two centre-halves against one opponent).

Again, what do I know? But if someone has a better plan I’d like to hear it. A back five on Saturday would necessarily involve someone having to slot in at left-side wing-back (OK, a back four means Ramsay being asked to play on his wrong side, but he did that at Preston to counter Small). One of my red lines here is that if we want to get the best out of Apter he has to play in the opposition’s half and not worry about trying to compete in the air or on the ground against bigger and stronger opponents. Also, Hernandez as a left-side wing-back has to be a non-starter. We saw against Southampton what happens to the defence if there are weak links to be exploited.

It is of course far too early in the season for any games to be considered six-pointers. But for us it is essential to at least end the run of defeats, while a win to bolster the buffer we have with the relegation zone is at least highly desirable. The players will have had all week to prepare, they will be aware of the emotional side of Saturday’s game for we Addicks. No doubt the crowd will be well up for this one. More than ever, COYA.