Much To Applaud, Still Plenty Of Imponderables

All current news and speculation is of course overshadowed by the tragic death of Ethan Ade-Oduwale. In tandem with everyone else, my thoughts and condolences go out to his family, friends, and team-mates.

The absence of a stream means I can’t comment on or draw any conclusions regarding last night’s clash with Ipswich. From Jones’ post-match comments it sounded like a mixed bag, minutes into legs etc but not much in the way of pointers to how we will line up against Watford, with now only one game left with which to experiment or firm up plans.

On the positive front, however you slice and dice it, and accept that nothing is guaranteed, the signing of Kelman is great news for us and has raised further everyone’s spirits. Post-Wembley I thought that if we could get either Kone or Kelman it would be good; getting Kelman and Olaofe is just excellent. After the signing of Apter I thought that perhaps the best way would be for us to bring in a young forward on loan from a Premiership club (and there were rumours regarding one from Spurs) to provide both the competition and the cover for Godden. Signing Kelman is a good deal better than that. Even the owners are getting plaudits for providing the cash to support Jones. Now that’s been a while.

On the negative/cautionary front, we’ve now only a little over a week and one game in anger to go before the campaign begins and there’s no clear idea of the structure or composition of the starting XI, the Plan A if you like. That’s for sure a plus in terms of having options, less so if it’s going to take a while for the new team to gel. And formations do matter. There’s no perfect one, just the one that gets the best out of the resources available and which the players get attuned to, so that play with the ball quickens, players know their jobs and understand who is likely to do what. Fluency doesn’t just happen because the players are good.

If you sat down now and wrote down the names of those who, if fit and available, are a shoo-in to start games, you’d I think end up with just Kaminski, Jones and Ramsay, probably Edwards and Coventry too. With Godden and Berry absent to date, plus Mannion (and Taylor), what can be said?

If we stick to at least starting games with a back 3/5 – and all the evidence from the friendlies points that way – the two questions to be worked through are will we repeat the central three of Wembley and how will the wing-backs work out? On the former I’d be comfortable if we did, with Bell, Burke and the two Mitchells (barring sales or loans) providing the competition.

The wing-backs are less clear (to me). Small’s departure is a big loss. Neither Asiimwe (who is heading off to Wimbledon on loan) nor the Wolves trialist really nailed down the spot on the right, Apter is a winger and if played in the role would add a very welcome attacking threat but surely would be a risk defensively. Would Jones choose to move Ramsay to the wider role, if Burke is fit? It’s an option, but Ramsay was working so well where he was. On the right side, the only issue with Edwards – who slotted in so well from day one - is that what worked so well last season was Campbell playing as a winger/forward and occupying the space on the left flank. If Cambell starts, fine. If not, and if it’s not a front three, the onus may be on him to power forward more often.

The midfield choices are in many ways determined by the formation and who plays up front. If it’s Campbell and Godden/Kelman, the place is available for the attacking midfielder to support in the box, as Berry did to great effect. It would I guess be a choice between Berry, Carey and – if he does arrive – Knibbs, also – if he does not go on loan - Dixon. If we adopt a more traditional front two (Godden, Kelman, Campbell or Kanu, plus Olaofe, Leaburn or Mbick, assuming Ahadme is to be moved on) the same could apply. But if Jones opts for a front three you would need two battlers/ball-winners in the central midfield spots. Then two from Docherty, Coventry, Rankin-Costello and Anderson surely get the nod, leaving no place at least under Plan A for Carey or Knibbs.

Thankfully none of this is going to be news to Jones and his team. He must, by now, have the framework at least and most of the choices for the 11 to run out against Watford in his head. The choices for Southend on Saturday will surely provide the clues.

With Sheffield Wednesday going through all sorts of problems, it appears the bookies have installed them as favourites for relegation. We still feature in the anticipated bottom three (if the betting in a thin market is a fair reflection). We do, for good reasons, expect better, while accepting that not going back down would count as a successful season (not going down and no serious relegation struggle would be the next goal, then top-half finish, finally a play-off place, an idea which is fanciful at this stage but not beyond the range of possibilities).

The Championship is significantly more compact than League One. One measure of this is if you look at the points spread between the final play-off place (ie sixth) and the final relegation spot (ie third from bottom). Last season that spread was just 19 points in the Championship and 35 in League One. That is influenced by the fact that the top four accumulated so many points, but if you go back to the two previous seasons it was 23 points against 33 and 25 and 33, so the evidence is there.

The point from this is, I think, that outside of the promotion places the Championship is a very tight league, which in turn means that the outcome can be down to fine margins. Teams do sometimes fall apart, but like last season it can all go to the wire. Every team can look back on a season and highlight points dropped when they shouldn’t have been. We really need to minimise these. For us, I’d suggest this emphasises the need to hit the ground running and to avoid periods of the season when we might slacken off, drift a bit. Jones won’t put up with that as and when it happens. At least we have the squad to ensure that we are much better covered against injuries than last season (they were very instrumental in the relegation-form spell before Christmas).

For myself, this is France, so like the world and his dog I’ll be heading off on holiday come the weekend, trying to avoid the motorway bouchons. I hope to be able to watch the first two league games, at least on a mobile/ipad. Watford, Bristol City and Leicester is undoubtedly a very tough start, up against three teams which will all be expecting to be competing at the top of the division. But we are an unknown quantity for them (of course they will have done their homework but are probably as much in the dark as us as to how we will look to play). Take it to Watford at a packed Valley, dominate them in the way we did against strong opposition last season, and set the tone for the games to follow. COYA.

All Good Signings, Perhaps Another Piece To Fill

With confirmation this morning of the signing of Apter we’re up to seven new players for the coming season. And, while probably not all of them will really work out, I don’t think any of us are quibbling about any of the additions. They all appear to be strong additions, ones ready to go straight into the team/squad. From Jones’ comments it’s reasonable to assume we’re not finished yet (and some permanent or loan departures are no doubt on the cards). But the issue now is surely how to make the best pieces fit for key areas, what system/formation is to be Plan A.

We deserved to get promoted, no question. Equally, we got lucky, in terms of injuries/suspensions in the final months (having been equally unlucky on that front in late 2024). We began last season with something like a plan, seemingly based around Ahadme and Godden striking up a partnership (which they failed to do), Leaburn featuring prominently (which unfortunately didn’t happen), Mitchell(A) leading the back line (which he did for a while), and Edwards and Small competing on the left side, possibly one supplanting Gillesphey (which thanks to his improvement didn’t happen). We were progressively transformed as Small found his role on the right side, Jones stepped up in defence and Ramsey returned from injury, while the Godden was finally given a run in the team and forged a way of playing as Campbell did his work out wide and Berry provided the necessary support for Godden in/around the box.

Point is, while injuries undoubtedly played their part, it took a good while into last season before we hit on a formation which really got the best out of the component parts. Then we got lucky as the key elements remained available through the run-in. The threat we had down both flanks – I’ve seen it said Jones was frustrated with Small some times and brought him off early, but that was usually down to Campbell being contained on the left and things not working, the only solution being to sacrifice Small, move Campbell to wide right, and introduce Aneke – meant we could operate without much in the way of midfield creativity (which is a polite way of saying yes, at times it was pretty basic).

So how do we shape up now? I’ll confess ignorance over exactly where some of the new signings are likely to end up being used, just what team structure Jones has in mind. With that proviso, and subject to fresh comings and goings, let’s have a stab.

It’s reasonable to assume that, barring injury or some mishap, Kaminski will wear the gloves. Just how Mannion and Maynard-Brewer react is up to them. If they both stay so much the better, would be a strong line-up, but if one decides to look for pastures new to be first choice they would go with all best wishes.

At the back, will it be the 3/5 of last season or a back four? No way to tell as yet, might depend on whether Apter or Rankin-Costello are viewed as a wing-back to replace Small. We would I think be happy starting the season with the same Ramsay, Jones, Gillesphey central combination, with Edwards on the left side. But obviously Bell and Burke now come into the equation, along with current standbys Mitchell(A), Mitchell(Z) and the returning Asiimwe. I’m inclined to assume that Bell will be a (valuable) squad player, as back-up for either Gillesphey or Edwards, but happy to be proven wrong. If everyone stays it looks like another season on loan for Mitchell(Z) and some reflection on the part of Mitchell(A). He was the defensive lynchpin early last season but once he lost his place, and was sometimes pushed further down the pecking order by McIntyre, it did seem to hurt his confidence. He may want to/need to be somewhere getting regular football, but if he stays we are stronger for it and it’s up to him to make his case for inclusion.

The midfield options (including wingers) are Docherty, Berry, Coventry and Anderson from last season, plus Rankin-Costello, Carey, and now Apter, and on the fringes Dixon (who may be on the club site as a forward but I’d assume would look to play a number 10 role, as he did at Dartford), Rylah, Mwamba and Enslin, if none of them are loaned out. Taylor is back but I believe out injured, so we’ll leave him aside for now. For me it’s less about numbers and more about the formation and roles. If Carey is viewed as a younger Berry, he has to provide the goals that the latter did last season. If Docherty or Coventry are to be supplanted those coming in will need to work bloody hard to justify a change, and if Rankin-Costello and/or Apter are to be accommodated perhaps the formation has to change.

There’s still regular talk of a need to bring in a creative midfielder; but I’m in the camp that assumes Jones doesn’t feel a particular need for a playmaker, unless he is a workhorse to boot. Gilbert came in last season due to Berry’s injury, but we really didn’t play in a fashion which allowed him to shine. I’d say that another midfielder would be great, but not the pressing need.

It's up front where I think we can still strengthen. We have to hand now Olaofe, Leaburn, Ahadme, Mbick, Godden, Campbell and Kanu. Clearly there will be no tears if Ahadme departs (if he stays I hope there’s a new beginning), Leaburn is really the wildcard factor (if he stays fit he is capable of moments of magic but improvement is still needed if he is to regularly lead the line), Kanu we don’t know will have more of an impact than last season, and Mbick is still developing. So in some respects the list is not as extensive as it looks. Olaofe we rightly have high hopes for, Godden is proven and just has to repeat last season’s form, Campbell is a potential match-winner but isn’t a poacher and still does his best work from a wide position.

In short, unless Kanu is not loaned out and comes to the fore I can’t see an obvious back-up or alternative for Godden, our most likely regular source of goals. And I think there is a possible solution. We could go out and blow a lot of money (that is the nature of the beast), but while we know Jones doesn’t like loan signings, for good reason, there always have to be exceptions that prove the rule. Surely there is out there a Premiership young forward, eager to develop, one we could not hope to buy, to bring in on loan. Might work, might not, worth the risk for the cost I’d suggest.

As things stand, although the bookies haven’t yet got to offering odds on relegation from the Championship (and the market is probably so thin as to be meaningless), given that only Oxford are currently considered greater outsiders than us for promotion there is a message. We are expected to struggle. That may be a reflection of being the third promoted club rather than the extent of the strengthening of the squad, perhaps the amounts being paid by some others for new players are well over the top. Fact is three teams will end up going down, however good they are. Just how competitive we will prove to be is simply impossible to say with any confidence. We will outwork most (if not all), Jones will demand nothing less. It's a challenge, one we've been craving for years. Bring it on!

Finally just to add to the long list of those wishing Tracey Leaburn every success and happiness in the future following the news she is to leave the club. I’ve no doubt she will be remembered with great affection not just for her work in the cause of prostate cancer detection, for which I’m personally especially grateful, but also for being the life and soul of the club for many years.