All current news and speculation is of course overshadowed by the tragic death of Ethan Ade-Oduwale. In tandem with everyone else, my thoughts and condolences go out to his family, friends, and team-mates.
The absence of a stream means I can’t comment on or draw any conclusions regarding last night’s clash with Ipswich. From Jones’ post-match comments it sounded like a mixed bag, minutes into legs etc but not much in the way of pointers to how we will line up against Watford, with now only one game left with which to experiment or firm up plans.
On the positive front, however you slice and dice it, and accept that nothing is guaranteed, the signing of Kelman is great news for us and has raised further everyone’s spirits. Post-Wembley I thought that if we could get either Kone or Kelman it would be good; getting Kelman and Olaofe is just excellent. After the signing of Apter I thought that perhaps the best way would be for us to bring in a young forward on loan from a Premiership club (and there were rumours regarding one from Spurs) to provide both the competition and the cover for Godden. Signing Kelman is a good deal better than that. Even the owners are getting plaudits for providing the cash to support Jones. Now that’s been a while.
On the negative/cautionary front, we’ve now only a little over a week and one game in anger to go before the campaign begins and there’s no clear idea of the structure or composition of the starting XI, the Plan A if you like. That’s for sure a plus in terms of having options, less so if it’s going to take a while for the new team to gel. And formations do matter. There’s no perfect one, just the one that gets the best out of the resources available and which the players get attuned to, so that play with the ball quickens, players know their jobs and understand who is likely to do what. Fluency doesn’t just happen because the players are good.
If you sat down now and wrote down the names of those who, if fit and available, are a shoo-in to start games, you’d I think end up with just Kaminski, Jones and Ramsay, probably Edwards and Coventry too. With Godden and Berry absent to date, plus Mannion (and Taylor), what can be said?
If we stick to at least starting games with a back 3/5 – and all the evidence from the friendlies points that way – the two questions to be worked through are will we repeat the central three of Wembley and how will the wing-backs work out? On the former I’d be comfortable if we did, with Bell, Burke and the two Mitchells (barring sales or loans) providing the competition.
The wing-backs are less clear (to me). Small’s departure is a big loss. Neither Asiimwe (who is heading off to Wimbledon on loan) nor the Wolves trialist really nailed down the spot on the right, Apter is a winger and if played in the role would add a very welcome attacking threat but surely would be a risk defensively. Would Jones choose to move Ramsay to the wider role, if Burke is fit? It’s an option, but Ramsay was working so well where he was. On the right side, the only issue with Edwards – who slotted in so well from day one - is that what worked so well last season was Campbell playing as a winger/forward and occupying the space on the left flank. If Cambell starts, fine. If not, and if it’s not a front three, the onus may be on him to power forward more often.
The midfield choices are in many ways determined by the formation and who plays up front. If it’s Campbell and Godden/Kelman, the place is available for the attacking midfielder to support in the box, as Berry did to great effect. It would I guess be a choice between Berry, Carey and – if he does arrive – Knibbs, also – if he does not go on loan - Dixon. If we adopt a more traditional front two (Godden, Kelman, Campbell or Kanu, plus Olaofe, Leaburn or Mbick, assuming Ahadme is to be moved on) the same could apply. But if Jones opts for a front three you would need two battlers/ball-winners in the central midfield spots. Then two from Docherty, Coventry, Rankin-Costello and Anderson surely get the nod, leaving no place at least under Plan A for Carey or Knibbs.
Thankfully none of this is going to be news to Jones and his team. He must, by now, have the framework at least and most of the choices for the 11 to run out against Watford in his head. The choices for Southend on Saturday will surely provide the clues.
With Sheffield Wednesday going through all sorts of problems, it appears the bookies have installed them as favourites for relegation. We still feature in the anticipated bottom three (if the betting in a thin market is a fair reflection). We do, for good reasons, expect better, while accepting that not going back down would count as a successful season (not going down and no serious relegation struggle would be the next goal, then top-half finish, finally a play-off place, an idea which is fanciful at this stage but not beyond the range of possibilities).
The Championship is significantly more compact than League One. One measure of this is if you look at the points spread between the final play-off place (ie sixth) and the final relegation spot (ie third from bottom). Last season that spread was just 19 points in the Championship and 35 in League One. That is influenced by the fact that the top four accumulated so many points, but if you go back to the two previous seasons it was 23 points against 33 and 25 and 33, so the evidence is there.
The point from this is, I think, that outside of the promotion places the Championship is a very tight league, which in turn means that the outcome can be down to fine margins. Teams do sometimes fall apart, but like last season it can all go to the wire. Every team can look back on a season and highlight points dropped when they shouldn’t have been. We really need to minimise these. For us, I’d suggest this emphasises the need to hit the ground running and to avoid periods of the season when we might slacken off, drift a bit. Jones won’t put up with that as and when it happens. At least we have the squad to ensure that we are much better covered against injuries than last season (they were very instrumental in the relegation-form spell before Christmas).
For myself, this is France, so like the world and his dog I’ll be heading off on holiday come the weekend, trying to avoid the motorway bouchons. I hope to be able to watch the first two league games, at least on a mobile/ipad. Watford, Bristol City and Leicester is undoubtedly a very tough start, up against three teams which will all be expecting to be competing at the top of the division. But we are an unknown quantity for them (of course they will have done their homework but are probably as much in the dark as us as to how we will look to play). Take it to Watford at a packed Valley, dominate them in the way we did against strong opposition last season, and set the tone for the games to follow. COYA.